1. The achievement gap between Roma and non-Roma students in East Central Europe and its potential causes (WP4, Task 3, P.4.11) Gábor Kertesi Gábor Kézdi (IE HAS CERS) (CEU, IE HAS CERS) GRINCOH Workshop Milan February 27-28, 2014

2. Roma in Europe: 10-12 million, 80 % in ECE Population share estimates: 2-4 %: Cz, Al, 4-7%: Hu, Mac, Ro,Sb 10 %: Sk, Bg Representative evidence is scarce. New international survey: UNDP, 2011: 12 European countries, 5 EU members - low education, low employment, low wages, prevalent poverty. One of the largest social problems in Europe. - employment of the 20-64 old Roma: 20-30 % in most of the countries - low education plays a major role in the employment gap (evidence: K-K, 2010 Hungary, Trentini, 2014 Bulgaria). Focus of the study: Achievement gap of the young Roma generation (reproducing poverty in the next generation) - UNDP 2011 survey: role of parental education and poverty - Hungary 2006: Unique data.The role of transmission mechanisms Motivation 2

3. 12 ECE countries surveyed in a standardized way Roma samples drawn from highly concentrated areas (segregated Roma neighnourhoods) based on external classification. Non-Roma samples drawn from areas within or near the surveyed segregated Roma neighbourhoods Ethnicity of individuals: self identification Both Roma & non-Roma samples are poorer and less educated than the national averages. Cannot be regarded as representative samples Data: demographics, employment, education, housing, health, income … School continuation of youths (20-24 year olds), but family background info only for those who live with their parents UNDP, 2011 survey 3

4. 4 Raw gap, 20-24-year-oldsGap conditional on income & parental educ. all those who live with parents Bulgaria-0.45-0.37-0.02 ns Czech Republic-0.46-0.57-0.14 ns Hungary-0.41-0.45-0.13 ns Romania-0.56-0.61-0.39 Slovakia-0.30-0.220.03 ns Albania-0.40-0.43-0.20 Bosnia Herzegov.-0.70-0.68-0.35 Croatia-0.53-0.47-0.17 ns Macedonia-0.63-0.67-0.30 Moldova-0.49-0.62-0.28 Montenegro-0.72-0. 74-0.36 Serbia-0.70-0.68-0.33 Gap in the probability of upper secondary education (ISCED2) or vocational education between Roma and non Roma youths, UNDP 2011

5. National Assessment of Basic Competences (NABC), 2006 - standardized test scores in reading and mathematics (similar to PISA) - covers all 8th graders in Hungary (about 100,000 students) - no ethnic markers The Hungarian Life Course Survey (HLCS) - Individual panel data at yearly frequency, 2006-2012 - initial sample is 10,000 8th graders in 2006 - representative sample is drawn from the NABC 2006 - NABC test scores linked to HLCS survey data on individual level - rich set of family background variables: health, parenting practices (retrospective questions as well), income, indices of poverty, parents’ work histories, ethnic markers (self identification/multiple ident.) - fraction of Roma students: 8 % - TSG: reading = -0.97, math = -1.05 standard deviation unit Hungarian data 5

6. Measuring social background 6 Family structure (presence of parents) Parental education Employment: father’s & mother’s: - Current employment - Permanent employment: % time of being employed in the past 15 years Income, household size, housing indicators, poverty indicators, place of residence Altogether: 24 indicators

7. Socio-economic conditions of Roma families are mainly responsible for the low academic performance of their children (gaps measured in std. deviation unit) 7 (with st.error)N of casesR2R2 READING COMPREHENSION Raw gap-0.97 (0.05)** 90560.06 Conditional gap: OLS -0.23 (0.05)** 90560.27 PSM: nearest neighbor matching -0.18 (0.06)* 836/480- PSM: stratified matching -0.18 (0.04)* 837/7948- MATHEMATICS Raw gap-1.05 (0.05)** 83350.07 Conditional gap: OLS -0.32 (0.05)** 83350.27 PSM: nearest neighbor matching -0.26 (0.06)* 837/395- PSM: stratified matching -0.26 (0.04)* 837/7948-

8. Channels by which social disadvantage hampers academic performance CHILD DEVELOPMENT LITERATURE: Children’s skill accumulation and school performance is weaker if: their health is weaker than that of their peers, they have little access to resources / activities important for developing their skills in their home environment, they have poor access to adequate educational services / motivating school environment. Test this on Hungarian data. 8

9. Measurement: Health and Home environment Health - Low birth weight - Self-reported health status at age of 15: dummy for „poor” or „fair” Home environment / parenting - Bedtime storytelling at preschool age - HOME index at young adolescent age ((0,1), adapted from NLSY), measuring two components of home environment & parenting : - Cognitive Stimulation - Emotional Support - Number of books, having an internet connection at home 9

10. Measurement: School Environment School fixed effects or school-and-class fixed effects - Compare Roma and non-Roma students attending the same schools / classes - Many students in the sample share the same school or class The meaning of TSG without and with FE in the equations - without FE: achievement diffs between randomly drawn R & nonR students (b) - with FE: achievement diffs between R & nonR schoolmates/classmates (b’) - (b – b’) = achievement diffs between R & nonR students who are not schoolmates/classmates = consequences of attending different schools Schools in a segregated system differ one another - in their educational quality (teacher / peer / facilities effects) and - in unmeasured characteristics of their students (motivation, self control etc.). The true effects of school quality is overestimated. Some cure: controls. 10

11. Measuring the COMBINED effect of all the three transmission mechanisms 11

12. Lessons from the regression accounting Not possible to separate the three effects. Highly correlated with one another. Lower and upper bounds of their strength - inferring their relative importance - but these estimates do not add up (because of their interrelations) Results - The lack of skill-enhancing home environment and good schools are the main causal pathways from poverty to low achievement - Childhood health: less important role in poor test results, - but may be important through other channels: can affect later life time events How do these results translate to the problem of ethnic TSG? - School achievement of Roma students is worse: - because they have limited access to resources and activities that promote their skill development at home AND - because they have limited access to high quality educational services. 12

13. Conclusion International comparison: UNDP 2011 Large R/nR diffs in secondary school completion: 30-70 % across ECE countries, important factor of reproducing poverty More than a half (in some countries 2/3) of the gap is due to family poverty and low parental education Poverty alleviation as one of the main policy goals 13

14. Conclusion (cont.) Hungarian case study: Role of more targeted policies Roma / non-Roma TSG is large - around 1 std. dev. both in reading and mathematics - similar in magnitude to the B/W TSG in the US in the 1980’s Gap shrinks to be close to zero in regressions - to 0.05 std. dev. in reading, 0.15 std. dev. in mathematics - Controls: health, parenting / home environment, school and class fixed effects, family background - No room for „Roma attitude”, „Roma culture” type explanations - Lagging of Roma students are caused by their social disadvantage Basic transmission mechanisms / policy goals - poor access to skill-enhancing resources in their home environment - poor access to good schools 14