1. ESPA ASSETS PROJECT Tipping Points September 2012 by Miroslav Honzak

2. Diffusion of Innovation Adoption Curve

3. Outline of methodology for modeling food security related thresholds and tipping points 1.Conduct literature review and decide on viable methods/models for the analysis 2.Hold workshops with local experts and beneficiaries to identify key ES, driving variables effecting ES supply and current and future needs and trends of ES loss under different scenarios of development. 3.Build models and model time-series of driving variables of ES for scenarios of development identified in Outcome 2 4.Based on results from Output 3 quantify flows of ES over time for specific beneficiaries for scenarios of development identified in Outcome 2 5.Based on Output 4 examine relationships between driving variables effecting ES supply and ES delivery; if necessary build models and model non-linearity to detect tipping points and identify critical values for driving variables effecting ES supply (e.g., critical value for the loss of ecosystems providing a service) 6.Hold workshop with government agency leads and beneficiaries on results 7.Integrate results with other ASSETS project objectives