1. 1 Dr Paula Cáceres Head, World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department 13th Conference of the OIE Regional Commission for the Middle East Kaslik, Lebanon, 10 to 14 November 2015 ANALYSIS OF THE ANIMAL HEALTH SITUATION IN MEMBER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION DURING 2014 AND 2015

2. 22 Contents 1)Exceptional events notified by countries/territories in the Middle East in 2014 and 2015 2)Situation relating to reporting of selected diseases Infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Vector borne diseases : lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever Foot and mouth disease 3)Summary of the current situations of AI and PPR in the world and in the Region 4)Regional issues for reporting to the OIE

3. 3 EXCEPTIONAL EVENTS NOTIFIED BY COUNTRIES/TERRITORIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN 2014 AND 2015 (UP TO AND INCLUDING 12 OCTOBER 2015)

4. 44 Immediate notifications received from countries/ territories in the Middle East in 2014 and 2015 19 notifications Most frequent No disease of aquatic animals

5. 55 Submission times for OIE-listed diseases, Middle East, 2014 and 2015 Submition of reports on time

6. 6 SITUATION RELATING TO REPORTING OF SELECTED DISEASES © ssinformer.com/ © Nicee © http://flickrhivemind.net/ © Delcampe.net

7. 77 Six-monthly reports for terrestrial animal diseases (as of 6 November 2015) Out of the Member Countries of the Regional Commission : 85% submitted both six-monthly reports for 2014 60% submitted the first six-monthly report for 2015

8. 88 Six-monthly reports for terrestrial animal diseases as of 12 October 2015 Member Countries with outstanding reports are encouraged to submit them as soon as possible so that their animal health information can be updated

9. 9 1.Infection with MERS‐CoV 2.Vector borne diseases : lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever 3.Foot and mouth disease © Delcampe.net

10. 10 Confirmed human cases of MERS between 2012 and 2015 ( Source WHO, last update 16 October 2015 ) 26 countries in the world (11 in the Middle East) have reported the disease in human

11. 11 Not yet fully understood… Transmission of MERS-coV?

12. 12 Location of MERS-CoV outbreaks in camels, as reported to the OIE in 2013 and 2014 Qatar - October 2013 Camels in contact with infected people Qatar - October 2013 Camels in contact with infected people Kuwait – May 2014 Samples on camels apparently healthly Kuwait – May 2014 Samples on camels apparently healthly Iran – October 2014 Camels illegally imported Iran – October 2014 Camels illegally imported Oman - December 2013 Samples on camels apparently healthly Oman - December 2013 Samples on camels apparently healthly

13. 13 OIE Active search activity Genetic material from MERS-CoV identified in camels? Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Genetic material from MERS-CoV identified in camels? Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Antibodies identified in camels? Middle East and Africa Antibodies identified in camels? Middle East and Africa

14. 14 Communication between Members Article 5.1.4. of the Terrestrial Animal Health Code “Responsibilities in case of an incident related to importation” If a disease appears in imported commodities, the Veterinary Authority of the exporting country should be informed so as to enable an investigation to be made.

15. 15 Risk factors for infection between and within herds? Associated with clinical signs in camels? Risk factors for infection between and within herds? Associated with clinical signs in camels? Not yet fully understood…

16. 16 OIE Activities OIE twinning project on camel diseases Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale network Abu Dhabi Food Control Authority

17. 17 Conclusions Importance of collaboration between the public health and the animal health sectors Importance to share data and design studies to develop a better understanding of MERS epidemiology Infection of camels should be notified to the OIE as an emerging disease

18. 18 1.Infection with MERS‐CoV 2.Vector borne diseases : lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever 3.Foot and mouth disease © ssinformer.com/ © Nicee

19. 19 Introduction to vector borne diseases OIE’s Sixth Strategic Plan (2016 – 2020): key role of climate change for the spread of diseases The Middle East Region play a crucial role in the potential spread of diseases (endemic in the African Region) to Europe and Asia Vector-borne diseases merit special attention and surveillance in the Middle East

20. 20 Analysis of dynamic for vector-borne diseases How the environmental/climatic conditions affect the distribution/dynamic of vector-borne diseases? Two vector-borne diseases (lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever) endemic in Africa have been moving northwards, spreading into the Middle East Region

21. 21 Evaluation of environmental/climatic conditions MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images 1 km spatial resolution Full image of the Earth acquired every 1 to 2 days Mean NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) map for the whole Middle East Region

22. 22 Mean annual vegetation map of NDVI of the Middle East Region

23. 23 lumpy skin disease Distribution of lumpy skin disease in the Middle East (1 January 2014 and 12 October 2015) Lumpy skin disease

24. 24 lumpy skin disease Percentage of countries reporting lumpy skin disease between 2005 and 2015, by semester (as of 12 October 2015) Spearman’ rank correlation = 696, p < 0.05; rho = 0.55

25. 25 Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in the period 2005 – 2015 (up to 12 October 2015) No = 352 Wilcoxon rank sum test, W = 37430.5, p-value < 0.001 NDVI values relates with the presence of LSD

26. 26 Rift Valley Fever Rift valley fever Distribution of Rift valley fever in the Middle East (1 January 2014 and 12 October 2015) Low quality of information provided

27. 27 Climate changes disease risk Need to increase the quality of the information provided

28. 28 Conclusions Climatic and environmental changes play a role in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. No clear indications about the dynamics of RFV, whereas very useful information was derived for LSD Member Countries encouraged to provide the OIE with information of the highest possible quality Analysis of environmental data and predictive models could help the Member Countries in their surveillance and prevention activities.

29. 29 © http://flickrhivemind.net/ 1.Infection with MERS‐CoV 2.Vector borne diseases : lumpy skin disease and Rift Valley fever 3.Foot and mouth disease

30. 30 Distribution of FMD in countries/territories of the Middle East (1 January 2014 and 12 October 2015) Present in 65% of countries/ territories

31. 31 Vaccination massively implemented 77% of affected countries 57% of non-affected countries Average of more than 6 000 000 livestock animals vaccinated annually per country

32. 32 (last update May 2015) Official foot and mouth disease status (last update May 2015)

33. 33 % of countries reporting FMD, between 2005 and the first semester of 2015, by semester (data based on reports received up to 12 October 2015) Quite stable regional situation median value of 65% Quite stable regional situation median value of 65%

34. 34 Analysis of WAHIS historical data Contribution of each FMD serotype to the presence of the disease in the Region during the past 10 years? The % of affected countries providing information for the serotype(s) identified significantly increased with time (Spearman’ rank correlation = 253, p = 1.5e-05; rho = -0.8)

35. 35 % of countries reporting FMD, between 2005 and the first semester of 2015, by semester (data based on reports received up to 12 October 2015) Serotypes O and A historically predominant

36. 36 Conclusions FMD widespread for many years, 5 circulating serotypes, and only 2 Member Countries recognised as having an FMD free zone or free country Significant economic impact of FMD Countries encouraged to share timely and accurate information, to achieve better preparation of control programmes The GF-TADs in the Middle East fostering cooperation and ensuring guidance and coherence to monitor progress.

37. 37 SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT SITUATIONS OF AI IN THE WORLD AND IN THE REGION © USAID

38. 38 N° immediate notifications for AI (both HPAI and LPAI) reported from countries in the Middle and in other Regions, between 2005 and 2015 (as of 12 October) 50 7 53 8

39. 39 Avian influenza All countries encouraged to apply surveillance in domestic birds and wild birds when applicable & notify their situation to the OIE in a timely manner Information essential to detect in an early manner any change in the viruses subtypes circulating in the Region Information essential for neighbouring countries and trade partners to prevent the spread of the viruses on their territories

40. 40 SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT SITUATIONS OF PPR IN THE WORLD AND IN THE REGION © Aleksandar Todorovic / Shutterstock.com

41. 41 Percentage of countries/territories in the Region reporting infection with peste des petits ruminants virus, between 2005 and the first semester of 2015, by semester (as of 12 October 2015) Spearman’ rank correlation = 737, p < 0.005; rho = 0.52

42. 42 Peste des Petits Ruminants The disease is most reported through six-monthly reports and it is considered sufficiently stable Deterioration of the sanitary situation: significant increase in the number of countries affected since 2005 The OIE highly recommends Member Countries to submit good quality information to better estimate the evolution of the disease

43. 43 REGIONAL ISSUES FOR REPORTING TO THE OIE

44. 44 Submission times for 2014 reports Six-monthly reports for terrestrial animal diseases Member Countries of the Regional Commission for the Middle East took more time for submission than those in other Regions Middle East Other Regions

45. 45 Submission times for 2014 reports Six-monthly reports for aquatic animal diseases Member Countries of the Regional Commission for the Middle East took more time for submission than those in other Regions Middle East Other Regions

46. 46 Submission times for 2014 reports Annual reports Higher % in the best category for Middle East but also higher % in the last category for the Middle East Middle East Other Regions

47. 47 2014 six-monthly reports for aquatic animals disease (as of 6 November 2015) 42% not yet submitted in the Region 32% 32% not yet submitted in other Regions Important : if a certain category of aquatic animals is not produced or captured in your country, please indicate the diseases affecting this category as “absent” in the reports, instead of providing “no information”.

48. 48 Conclusions More efforts to be put to submit information in a timelier manner Recommendation to nominate a National Focal Point for Aquatic Animals in order to support the optimal collection and submission of information to the OIE Many countries in the Region are not submitting any information about aquatic animal diseases, despite the nomination of a specific Focal Point

49. 49 Thank you for your attention!