1. REQUESTED INTERVENTIONS TO ENSURE FOOD SECURITY, INCOME SECURITY, JOB SECURITY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY TO DEAL WITH THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT Dr Pieter Prinsloo Vice-Chairman National Red Meat Producers’ Organisation

2. INTRODUCTION Livestock production in South Africa is a fundamental element of socio-economic development and a significant contributor to food security, food sovereignty and income security 70 % of agricultural land can only be utilised by livestock and game Livestock contributes to 27 % of consumer food basket 1,2 million households own livestock 60 % commercial 40 % emerging/subsistence

3. GROWTH PATH The livestock industry aligned itself with – NGP : New Growth Path NDP : National Development Plan IPAP : Industrial Policy Action Plan APAP : Agricultural Policy Action Plan It is all about growth, creation of employment, rural development and food and income security We as producer organisation and organised agriculture are and should be involved

4. PROVINCES ALREADY PROCLAIMED AS DROUGHT DISASTER © 2015 Agri SA 4 GP Pendi ng N Cape 29 Jan 2016 LMP 13 Nov 2015 E Cape 4 Dec 2015 KZN 20 Nov 2015 FS 4 Sep 2015 W Cape Pen ding NW 24 Jul 2015 MP 4 Dec 205

5. CommoditySevereModerate Minimal effect Maize Wheat Oil seeds - Sunflower - Soybeans - Groundnuts Beef & Sheep Poultry PorkPork Game Ostrich Wool and mohair Cotton Dairy Fruit Citrus Table grapes Wine Vegetables Potato Sugar Forestry Tobacco SUMMARY OF DROUGHT IMPACTS ON COMMODITIES © 2015 Agri SA

6. CRITICAL ASPECTS We have to keep nucleus herds in good condition through winter Current breeding season conception rate very important We need to up our % of calving and lambing to rebuild our national herd If help is rendered, it will take two seasons to recover IF NOT four seasons in the commercial sector and never in the emerging sector “Guestimate” - 5 % loss in national beef herd of 13 million - complete eradication of nucleus herds of certain individuals Emergent sector much more vulnerable

7. GENERAL CONDITION OF VELD “GRAZING” IN PROVINCES WCFSNCNWMPULIMGPKZNEP GOOD MODERATE POOR © 2015 Agri SA

8. DROUGHT HAS AN IMPACT ON SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS

9. RISK ANALYSIS Food insecurity Income insecurity Job losses Erosion of tax basis Socio-economic decline in rural areas Drastic increase in red meat prices

10. RECOMMENDED INTERVENTIONS BY GOVERNMENT IN ORDER TO SPEED UP THE RECOVERY OF THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY Subsidising the purchase of feed and fodder Providing and interest rate subsidy for herd rebuilding

11. BEST ESTIMATE OF FINANCIAL NEED OVER PERIOD FOR COMMERCIAL AND SMALL HOLDERS STARTING IN 2016/17 © 2015 Agri SA

12. Medium case total 3 years R12 569 793 100 Exponential impact is possible in each scenario TOTAL FISCAL OUTLAY REQUIRED IN THE 2017/18 AND 2018 FISCAL YEARS © 2015 Agri SA

13. FINANCING MODELS ANGEL FUNDING

14. RPO / UFS DROUGHT SURVEY RPO outsourced drought survey to the University of the Free State To determine and quantify the real impact of the drought in the livestock industry Random survey involving 40 farmers and 5 abattoirs per province –30 commercial farmers per province –10 emergent farmers per province

15. National RPO PO Box 132, Perseqour Park, 0020 Tel +27 12 349 1102 / 1103 E- mail : rpo@lantic.net Visit us at www.rpo.co.za Facebook