1. Environmental Stability of Forest Corridors in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) Region R. Welch University of Alabama – Huntsville V. S. Manoharan, U. S. Nair, R. Lawton, J.Mecikalski, A. Song, T. Sever, D. Irwin, R. Griffin, T. Berendes, D. Berendes, S. Asefi, D.K. Ray First Year Results

2. The proposed Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) is an ambitious effort to stem the erosion of biodiversity in one of the world’s biologically richest regions. The intent is to connect large existing parks and reserves with new protected areas by means of an extensive network of biological corridors within Mesoamerica/Central America to create an environment which provides better prospects for the long-term survival of native species while also addressing the region’s socioeconomic needs.

5. To what extent are land use change disturbances affecting the environmental stability of protected regions and corridors in the MBC? Compared to forested habitats in the same life zone, dry season deforested habitats have: higher daytime temperatures, are less cloudy, lower estimated soil moisture and lower values of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The result is hotter and drier air over deforested regions, with lower values of cloud formation and precipitation.

7. Holdridge Life Zones Each of the Life Zones is named so as to suggest a vegetation formation. Based on three climate parameters: 1) Mean Annual Biotemperature; 1) Mean Annual Biotemperature; –Mean annual biotemperature is the sum of daily mean temperatures between 0° and 30°C divided by 365. Biotemperature defines the latitudinal or altitudinal belts of life zones. 2) Annual Precipitation; 2) Annual Precipitation; 3) Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Ratio. 3) Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Ratio. –PET is a simple empirical linear function of biotemperature, and the PET-ratio is defined as PET divided by annual precipitation. The PET-ratio defines humidity provinces

9. Guatemala Climatological Average Rainfall (    ) for March (mm) HOLDRIDGE LIFE ZONES Rainfall observed over Forested Areas Rainfall observed over Deforested Areas Subtropical Lower Montane Moist Forest 23.14  13.63 N=7 14.79  6.65 N=19 Subtropical Moist Forest 39.00  37.66 N=11 14.34  11.45 N=38 Subtropical Lower Montane Wet Forest 65.90  70.57 N=10 32.00  33.70 N=5 Subtropical Wet Forest 74.79  39.28 N=41 58.07  31.61 N=58 Subtropical Rain Forest 105.17  50.00 N=6--

11. CF = Climatological cloud frequency 2000-2003 (%); LST = Land surface temperature (K); NDVI = Normalized difference vegetation index on a scale 0-1; and SLM = Soil moisture on a scale 0-1; N = Sample size. Holdridge Life Zone Ecosystem Type CFLSTNDVISLMN Subtropical Lower Montane Moist Forest Evergreen Needleleaf 31.28  16.35 304.3  1.80 0.52  0.09 0.71  0.18 496 Evergreen Broadleaf 31.26  11.58 304.4  2.06 0.53  0.10 0.68  0.20 1482 Deciduous Broadleaf 32.39  13.07 304.6  2.09 0.52  0.10 0.67  0.20 377 Woodlands 24.05  11.94 305.9  2.41 0.49  0.09 0.56  0.21 3919 Wooded Grasslands 22.62  10.99 307.4  2.47 0.44  0.09 0.44  0.19 2288 Grasslands 21.90  12.63 307.7  2.33 0.44  0.09 0.40  0.18 1562

12. HYPOTHESIS: Central American deforestation and land use change have altered regional and local climates in ways that influence the conservation utility of MBC core elements and corridors Precipitation Records Precipitation Records Convective Initialization Convective Initialization GEMRAMS Model GEMRAMS Model IF SO: Can we predict future local climatic conditions and the type of vegetation likely to exist in the altered landscapes?

13. COUNTRIESNo of sites with Monthly data No of sites with Daily data Years of data availability BELIZE76851952-2006 GUATEMALA266201970-present EL SALVADOR-401942-2006 NICARAGUA220-- HONDURAS-131944-2006 COSTA RICA2728901936-2007 PANAMA1871131975-2006 Central American Precipitation Data Acquired

16. Precipitation Questions To what extent does dry season precipitation decrease due to land use disturbances? To what extent does dry season precipitation decrease due to land use disturbances? Are some Life Zones and Ecosystems more sensitive to land use disturbances? Are some Life Zones and Ecosystems more sensitive to land use disturbances? Are there important scales of deforestation which are important? E.g. ~ 1000 km 2 Are there important scales of deforestation which are important? E.g. ~ 1000 km 2 Do changes upwind impact the precipitation in protected regions? Do changes upwind impact the precipitation in protected regions?

17. 30-Year Cumulus Cloud Analysis: MBC Region 1977-2007 Goal: Develop a 30-year analysis of dry-season (Feb, Mar, Apr) cumulus cloud frequency towards testing the hypothesis that end-of dry season cumulus clouds are decreasing in coverage, to imply a lengthening of the dry season over MBC regions. A trend of such nature would suggest increasing stress on native flora and fauna in these biologically sensitive regions of Central America. GOES-8 and GOES-12 (~1800-2100 UTC; Noon-2 pm Local Time) for each February, March and April, 1977-2007

18. Cloud Masking Procedure Visible (above) plus GOES IR channels 6.5, 10.7 and 13.3  m via Berendes et al. (2008) Standard Deviation Limited Adaptive Clustering algorithm.Example CCM (right). Berendes, T. A., J. R. Mecikalski, W. M. Mackenzie, Jr., K. M. Bedka, and U. S. Nair, 2008: Convective cloud identification and classification in daytime satellite imagery using standard deviation limited adaptive clustering. Submitted J. Geosphys. Res.

19. Cloud-Top Cooling Rate Example Cloud-top cooling rates >-4 C/15-min Are highly correlated with the first Occurrence of >35 dBZ rainfall echo at Ground within 1 hour. Defines “Convective Initiation” Roberts and Rutledge (2003)

20. Ongoing Work & Immediate Plans: Develop correlation between cumulus cloud frequency and land-use, and especially with respect to the Life Zone regions. Process GOES-8 and -12 data from 2007, 2002, 1997, 1992, 1987, 1982 and 1977 to assess if there is a significant signal of change in low-cloud frequency with respect to the Life Zone regions. If a signal exists, process data from February-March-April for all years (77- 07), for selected times of day (e.g., 20 UTC), to assess the trend in low-clouds. By late 2008, develop methods for Estimating if the cumulus that do exist Grow to produce rainfall. Use the algorithm of Roberts and Rutldge (2003) to relate large cloud-top Cooling rates for cumulus to convective Initiation (>35 dBZ radar echoes). Acquire GOES-7/-8/-12 10.7  m data For estimating cloud-top cooling.

21. GEMRAMS Impact of deforestation on MBC GEMRAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled with General Energy and Mass Transport Model (GEMTM) (Beltran and Pielke, Sr) GEMRAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled with General Energy and Mass Transport Model (GEMTM) (Beltran and Pielke, Sr) GEMRAMS simulates dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and growing canopy GEMRAMS simulates dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and growing canopy Impact of deforestation in the areas surrounding MBC Impact of deforestation in the areas surrounding MBC Use GEMRAMS to simulate how the vegetation in the MBC areas for different scenarios of deforestation in the surroundings Use GEMRAMS to simulate how the vegetation in the MBC areas for different scenarios of deforestation in the surroundings

22. GEMRAMS RAMS simulates mesoscale atmospheric processes RAMS simulates mesoscale atmospheric processes GEMTM computes daily gross photosynthesis considering C3 and C4 photosynthesis GEMTM computes daily gross photosynthesis considering C3 and C4 photosynthesis Available carbon pool is then allocated to stem, leaves, roots and reproductive organs Available carbon pool is then allocated to stem, leaves, roots and reproductive organs NARR Data USGS Topo MODIS Land use MODIS Land products FAO Soil data NARR Soil moisture RAMS LEAF2 GEMTM INPUTS

27. Results from this study will be placed into SERVIR other than the Precipitation Records Questions?