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JEG DM: progress in DM dynamic models became a commonly used tool, several ICPs and national focal points use DM DM provide timescale to expected changes.

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Presentation on theme: "JEG DM: progress in DM dynamic models became a commonly used tool, several ICPs and national focal points use DM DM provide timescale to expected changes."— Presentation transcript:

1 JEG DM: progress in DM dynamic models became a commonly used tool, several ICPs and national focal points use DM DM provide timescale to expected changes there is a variety of models used looking into soils, waters and changes in plant species, site specific and regional impact on policy is still questionable, unclear why

2 Biological Recovery at Saudlandsvaten

3 MAGIC at Saudlandsvaten

4 JEG DM: modeling waters regional studies (UK, Finland and Sweden) MAGIC libraries (Sweden, UK) MAGIC: C&N dynamics further developed

5 courtesy of Filip Oulehle and Jack Cosby

6 JEG DM: older predictions revisited model predictions from 2000 (RECOVER 2010) driven by observed deposition 1995 - 2010 comparison to observed data without re-callibrating

7 Long-term record of acidification and recovery R.F. Wright 2, R.C. Ferrier 1, J. Aherne 3, L. Camareo 4, B.J. Cosby 5, C.D. Evans 6, M. Forsius 7, J. Hruska 8, A. Jenkins 9, P. Kram 8, J. Kopáček 10, V. Majer 8, F. Moldan 11, M. Posch 12, M. Rogora 13 B.L. Skjelkvåle 2 1 The James Hutton Institute, UK. 2 Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Norway 3 Trent University, Canada 4 CEAB-CSIC, Spain 5 University of Virginia, USA 6 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK 7 Finnish Environment Institute, Finland 8 Czech Geological Survey, Czech Republic 9 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK Rachel Helliwell 1 and Leah Jackson-Blake 1 10 Biological Centre ASCR, Czech Republic 11 IVL, Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Sweden 12 Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), The Netherlands 13 Institute of Ecosystem Study, Italy

8 Records of surface water ANC (μeql -1 ) and model forecasts from 1995

9

10 JEG DM: modeling vegetation several models in use and under tests and development observed changes are slow (decades at least), time series of observations are scarce evaluation of models is problematic

11 Level 2 plots; Oak forests, woody biomas courtesy of Wieger Wamelink

12 Comparing the modelled and measured ground cover of plants at Gårdsjön Year 1992

13 Modelled ground cover of indicator plants at Gårdsjön over the period 1900 to 2100

14 Rothamstead; a mown grassland site

15 JEG DM dynamic models do have ability to make robust predictions of chemical status and to an extent even of impact on organisms models have been tested and provide policy- relevant outputs (e.g. target loads) challenge remains to make an impact on policy

16 JEG 12 (Oct 27 – 29 2011, Sitges) outcome of call for data 2010/2011 DM of N as a nutrient in terrestrial systems, role of DOC in acidification and recovery DM of climate change/air pollution interactions, terrestrial carbon sequestration DM of biological response Contact Susie Beresford (sjbe@ceh.ac.uk) Agenda items include

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