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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Demand: New Domestic Uses and LNG Exports Natural Gas.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Demand: New Domestic Uses and LNG Exports Natural Gas."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Demand: New Domestic Uses and LNG Exports Natural Gas Demand Outlook Morgan Stanley Global Commodities Conference December 12, 2012 | Sunny Isles Beach, FL by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

2 Shale gas leads growth in production through 2040 2 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated onshore Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011 Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012

3 3 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation ** 33% 14% 6% 32% 12% 33% 19% 3% 31% 13% *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Gas to liquids 2% Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012 Natural gas consumption is dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth

4 Electricity generation mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source 4 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 25% 19% 42% 13% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables 2011 ProjectionsHistory 17% 16% 35% 30% 1% 1993 53% 13% 19% 11% 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012

5 Industrial natural gas use grows, especially before 2025 5 Industrial natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012

6 6 Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu ProjectionsHistory 2011 60% Motor gasoline E85 Jet fuel CNG/LNG 11% 13% 4% 29% 47% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 2% Pipeline fuel 3% 4% Other 4% Diesel 22% 1% Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012 Natural gas use in transportation rises as motor gasoline demand declines… overall transportation use is largely unchanged

7 Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come? 7 Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012 U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Pipeline fuel Light-duty vehicles 2011 HistoryProjections 95% 3% 1% 28% 38% 3% 31% 1% Buses Freight trucks Gas to liquids Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

8 8 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2011 Consumption Domestic supply Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012 Net imports Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020

9 Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case 9 U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Alaska LNG exports Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012

10 10 Two key federal agencies are involved in LNG export licenses. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) licenses the export facilities (LNG plants and terminals). The Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy (DOE/FE) is responsible for a public interest determination. Federal law generally requires approval of natural gas exports to countries that have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. For countries that do not have an FTA, the DOE is required to grant applications for export authorizations unless the proposed exports "will not be consistent with the public interest." Factors for consideration include economic, energy security, and environmental impacts. On August 7, 2012, Cheniere Marketing, LLC was granted a non-FTA license for up to 2.2 Bcf per day over 20 years. On December 5, 2012, the DOE/FE released a consultant study (NERA) on the economic impact of LNG exports, and invited comments. The NERA report will become part of the 15 pending export application dockets. DOE/FE expects to act on the applications on a case-by-case basis, starting with applicants which have already commenced the pre-filing process at FERC. Regulations for LNG export licenses

11 For more information 11 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.govwww.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeowww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steowww.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieowww.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergywww.eia.gov/todayinenergy Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthlywww.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annualwww.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual Adam Sieminski December 12, 2012


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