2. Spinning Ed!

3. We think through metaphors:

5. I have a brain I obs. x I want to understand x I need to predict future x’ How?

6. dataTheory no inmaculate obs. no theoretical vacuum no fact w/o. fiction no data w/o. theory.

7. Why ? is a logical proposition in a domain of discourse

8. data must have meaning meaning by I mean Theory

9. = explanation = compressing code = Probability distribution

10. hidden obs.

11. Thetatistical Manifold data manifoldfinite measures

12. Sufficient map

13. Canonical Example:

14. Example: Car insurance. Any!!

15. iid

16. Wrong !

20. Ignorance = Independence & Uniformity spread concentrate

21. What’s New? 1.Objective proc. for transforming prior info into prior distributions. 2.A new understanding of Data, Prior, and Likelihood. 3.Optimality of scalar field Conjugate Priors for Exp. Fam. 4.The discovery of Antidata and virtual data. 5.Optimality of Priors with tails following power laws. 6.Evaporation of the Bayesian/Freq. divide. 7.A dent at the Mind/Body problem. 8.A justification of Perelman’s Action. (That proved Thurston’s Geometrization Conjecture.) 9.A Geometric Theory of Ignorance. 10.The solution to a 260 year old problem: Objective Quantification of Ignorance in Statistical Inference.

22. Max (Ignorance) s.t. Whatever is known (I forgot to mention that Bayes Theorem follows from this as a special case and in 2 very different ways!)

24. The Universe is a human thing