1. Business Forecasting

4. Used to try to predict the future Uses two main methods: Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making – Consumer panels, focus groups, etc Quantitative – using statistical data to help inform decision making – Identifying trends – Moving averages – seasonal, cyclical, random – Extrapolation - simple

5. Business Forecasting Some businesses use alternative methods: Astrologers! Is such a strategy any better or worse than using quantitative or qualitative methods?

6. Business Forecasting

7. Costs and Benefits of Forecasting: Benefits: – Aids decision making – Informs planning and resource allocation decisions – If data is of high quality, can be accurate

8. Business Forecasting Costs: – Data not always reliable or accurate – Data may be out of date – The past is not always a guide to the future – Qualitative data may be influenced by peer pressure – Difficulty of coping with changes to external factors out of the business’s control – e.g. economic policy, political developments (9/11?), natural disasters – hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.