Yellowfin Tuna 1975-2005. Major Changes Catch, effort, and length-frequency data for the surface fisheries have been updated to include new data for 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Yellowfin Tuna

Major Changes Catch, effort, and length-frequency data for the surface fisheries have been updated to include new data for 2005 and revised data for Catch data for the Japanese longline fisheries have been updated for and to include new data for Catch data for the longline fisheries of Chinese Taipei have been updated for 2002 and new data added for Catch data fore the longline fisheries of Korea have been updated to include new data for 2003 Catch data for the longline fisheries of the Peoples Republic of China have been updated to include new data for 2003 and Longline catch-at-length data for have been updated and new data for 2004 added. Longline catch per unit effort data have been standardized using a delta-lognormal model, updated to include 2004 data. Growth model has been changed to fix length-at-age at the prior distribution of a Richards growth curve based on otolith data

Sensitivity Analyses Stock recruitment relationship Asymptotic length

Data Fishery definitions Catch Effort Length frequency

Yellowfin Fishery Definitions

Catch FO southFO centralFO coastal FO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL north NA south NA north LL south LL north BB DIS southDIS northDIS coastalDIS central

Effort FO south FO central FO coastal FO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL north NA south NA north LL south LL north BB DIS south DIS north DIS coastal DIS central

CPUE FO south FO central FO coastal FO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL north NA south NA north LL south LL north BB DIS south DIS north DIS coastal DIS central

Fixed Parameters Natural Mortality Fecundity at age Sex ratio at age Selectivity curves for the discard fisheries The steepness of the stock recruitment relationship = 1 (no relationship)

Natural Mortality Age in quarters -- Edad en trimestres Quarterly M -- M Trimestral

Sex Ratio Age in quarters Percent female

Relative Fecundity Age in quarters Relative fecundity x maturity

Estimated parameters Recruitment Temporal anomalies, (no Seasonal component) Catchability Temporal anomalies Selectivity Initial population size and age-structure Mean length at age Variation of length at age

Results Fit to the length frequency Growth Fishing mortality Selectivity Recruitment Biomass Catchability

Fit to the length-frequency FO south FO centralFO coastalFO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL northNA south NA north LL south LL north BB

Growth

Fishing mortality

Age Specific Fishing Mortality

Selectivity FO south FO central FO coastal FO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL north NA south NA north LL south LL north BB DIS southDIS northDIS coastal DIS central

Catchability FO south FO central FO coastal FO north DOL south DOL coastal DOL north NA south NA north LL south LL north BB

Recruitment

Recent length-frequency data (FO) FO southFO centralFO coastalFO north 23 41

Recent length-frequency data (Unassociated) NA south NA north

Recent length-frequency data (Dolphin associated) DOL south DOL coastal DOL north

Recent length-frequency data (longline) LL southLL north

Stock - recruitment

Biomass

Spawning Biomass

Average weight FO southFO centralFO coastalFO north DOL south DOL coastalDOL northNA south NA north LL south LL north BB Surface Longline

No Fishing

Fishery impact

No Fishing and Fishery Impact

Biomass Comparisons

Reference points & projections Assumptions –For MSY calculations Average of for fishing mortality –For forward projections Average of for catchability 2004 effort

SBR

AMSY by method FisheryAMSYB AMSY S AMSY B AMSY /B F=0 S AMSY /S F=0 F multiplier PesqueríaRMSPB RMSP S RMSP B RMSP /B F=0 S RMSP /S F=0 Multiplica dor de F All— Todos OBJ NOA DEL LL

AMSY with method removed FisheryAMSYB AMSY S AMSY B AMSY /B F=0 S AMSY /S F=0 F multiplier PesqueríaRMSPB RMSP S RMSP B RMSP /B F=0 S RMSP /S F=0 Multiplica dor de F All— Todos No FLT No UNA No DOL No LL

AMSY with effort adjusted All gears Purse- seine only Longline only Purse- seine scaled Longline scaled Base AMSY—RMSP B AMSY —B RMSP S AMSY —S RMSP B AMSY /B 0 —B RMSP /B S AMSY /S 0 —S RMSP /S F multiplier—Multiplicador de F

Yield

AMSY quantities using F(y)

Sensitivity: h = 0.75 When the spawning population is 20% of its unexploited level the recruitment is 75% of its unexploited level Biomass Recruitment SBR Yield Curve AMSY

Biomass Comparison

Recruitment

SBR

Yield Curve

Sensitivity to L ∞ : proportion YFT > given length

Maximum length observed by yr

Sensitivity to assumed L ∞ : Biomass

Recruitment

Spawning biomass ratio

Selectivity Base case L ∞ = 200 L ∞ = 170

AMSY table

Forward Simulations Depletion ratio Surface fishery catch Longline catch

SBR

Catch

Catch with median catchability

Summary: Main Results The results are similar to the previous four assessments, except that SBR at SBR AMSY is lower than in the last assessment The biomass is estimated to have declined slightly in 2005 There is uncertainty about recent and future recruitment and biomass levels

What is robust The trend in biomass The regime shift in recruitment

Plausible Sensitivities and Uncertainties The stock recruitment relationship Asymptotic length Uncertainty in current biomass and recruitment

Conclusions 1.The biomass is estimated to have declined slightly in The current SBR may be close to the SBR required to produce AMSY 3.The current fishing mortality rates are close to those required to produce AMSY 4.The average weight of a yellowfin in the catch is much less than the critical weight and increasing the average weight could increase AMSY 5.There have been two different productivity regimes and the levels of AMSY and the biomass required to produce AMSY may differ between the regimes

The END