TRAFFIC FORECASTING FOR PORT OPERATIONS

TRAFFIC FORECASTING The essence of port traffic forecasting is to attempt to forecast (predict): (a) What kinds and tonnages of commodities will move through the port? (b) How will these commodities be packaged and transported as maritime cargo? (c) What types of ship, tonnages and frequency of calls will this result in?

TRAFFIC FORECASTING Traffic forecasting requires a combination of commercial and economic knowledge which together are used to make an assessment (forecast) of the future needs of the port.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING The fact that there is a high degree of uncertainty in any forecast must be recognized and contingencies put in place to minimize the consequences which could result from this uncertainty.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING Ports are in a particularly vulnerable situation in terms of forecasting as : 1.There is uncertainty inherent in any forecast and particularly so in terms of forecasting future trade 2.The time-scale involved in port planning is a long term one as both construction of infrastructure and purchase of superstructure will require time

TRAFFIC FORECASTING 3.The ability of a port to influence the demand for the use of its facilities is really quite limited. 4.Maritime trade is constantly going through periods of rapid change which can critically impact the volumes and types of traffic likely to use any port.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING It must also be noted that forecasts for port development should be linked with the overall national development plans as this will require significant levels of financing.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING Errors in forecasting can be serious, and the consequences of overestimating or underestimating a port’s needs can be costly based on the extent of the error.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING To over-build in terms of the provision of additional infrastructure and superstructure will increase the debt burden of the facility and may force the terminal to hike handling costs in order to service their debt

TRAFFIC FORECASTING On the other hand, underestimating the needs of the facility and as a consequence not having in place the required resources to handle the volume of traffic transiting the port would result in congestion leading higher operational costs, loss of revenue and possible loss of customers.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING The fact of the matter however is that even when all precautions have been taken to reach realistic and well-reasoned forecasts, the remaining uncertainty usually still produces a wide variation of possible levels of traffic.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING This is due to the long term nature involved in the provision and securing of resources which necessitates projecting or forecasting several years in the future. Variances on the long-term master plan can be even more pronounced. All forecasts must therefore be treated with caution

TRAFFIC FORECASTING In order to mitigate against the risk associated with port traffic forecasting the planners usually formulates three forecasts. A central forecast which is the one the data studied indicates should be accurate and a upper and lower forecast predicting what the needs would be if the targets achieved were in fact higher or lower than those which were used.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING Naturally the hope will be that the actual traffic levels which materializes in terms of both volume and type of traffic will be closer to the central forecast than to the upper or lower forecasts.

TRAFFIC FORECASTING The possibility that it will not be so is however significant and port management will try to minimize the risk by looking for a design solution which is robust enough to deal with some variety in the projected future traffic.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO A traffic scenario is a consistent description of the entire future traffic which is likely to come to the port and the manner in which it will develop. It assumes that the port does nothing to prevent the traffic arriving, but encourages it by providing reasonable facilities to handle it

TRAFFIC SCENARIO For each cargo category, the probable volumes under different circumstances and the possible alternative types of technology that may be used in their carriage and handling are all considered.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO Several scenarios are then drawn up with each being fully self-sufficient and resolving clashes between forecasts for different trades. This permits reliable estimates to be made of the resources needed.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO The traffic scenario planning team should include an operational manager and this is usually be the traffic manager of the port as information from the traffic department is critical to the construction of an accurate scenario.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO Representatives of shippers’ and ship owners’ interests should also participate preferably as full members of the team.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO Visits to modern ports, located on the trade routes connecting with the terminal so as to become aware of possible future developments which could impact traffic trends is also advisable for team members.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO Scenario writing takes place after the analysis of traffic data, the examination of numerical trends and the making of simple projections as these are the primary data on which the scenarios are based.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO The traffic scenario team must be careful though that conclusions are drawn not only from the extrapolation of past figures but that future growth potential are also factored in.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO For example, a team looking only at past traffic figures may ignore the potential export traffic of mineral products from presently undeveloped mines whose potential for production and export to overseas markets have been definitely established.

TRAFFIC SCENARIO The possibility of high volumes of this product being exported through the port must be factored in as these exports would definitely impact on the resources needed for operational efficiency

Control statistics The task of the traffic forecaster is not only to provide a central trend forecast but to also ensure that a system of monitoring, at given intervals usually annually, is in place to detect if the actual traffic begins to deviate from this forecast

Control statistics At these intervals established benchmarks (“signposts”)will indicate to the management whether to carry on as planned or change direction, depending on the degree of deviation from the forecast.

Control statistics This is a simple but effective approach and requires: - The regular collection of a small number of essential traffic statistics to serve as a control - Giving a port manager the responsibility for reactivating the planning process when predetermined deviations from forecast are reached.

Control statistics Given that any one port investment project may take up to five years to complete, it is entirely possible that within this time period the deviation from forecast will exceed the acceptable level.

Control statistics In these cases the planning procedure should be repeated, starting from the point reached in the project. Some form of readjustment will usually still be possible even at a fairly advanced stage

Control statistics Some of the most useful control statistics available from the ship and shift records which should be kept are, as appropriate to each terminal: - The total tonnage handled; - The average ship turn-round time - The average tonnage loaded/discharged per ship

Control statistics - The volume of special traffic handled at a multipurpose terminal - The average ship length - The maximum draught on arrival and maximum ship length - The number of containers - The number of ships

Forecast Procedure Analyze past traffic - Define routes and cargo volumes per route - Classify and tabulate cargo volumes - Examine trends and analyze their causes - Examine the impact of seasonal effects

Forecast Procedure Review market influences on traffic - Shippers opinions - Shipping companies plans - Technological trends, larger ships? Different packaging/shipping methods?

Forecast Procedure Estimate systematic traffic growth rates - GNP-linked cargoes - Special cargoes - Regional/hinterland trends

Forecast Procedure Investigate expected traffic-Influencing events - Industry plans - Agricultural plans - Transport links/transit policies - Trade agreements

Forecast Procedure Combine all information into alternative growth and technology scenarios - Identify principal scenario themes - Combine all data for each theme - Remove numerical inconsistencies - Write scenarios

Forecast Procedure For each scenario, tabulate annual forecasts in each traffic class - Tonnages (weight tons) - TEU throughput - Number and size of ships - Impact of seasonal cargo