LOCAL ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER (LETKF) ANALYSIS OF LOOP CURRENT & EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO Fanghua Xu 1, Leo Oey 1, Yasumasa Miyazawa 2, Peter Hamilton.

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LOCAL ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER (LETKF) ANALYSIS OF LOOP CURRENT & EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO Fanghua Xu 1, Leo Oey 1, Yasumasa Miyazawa 2, Peter Hamilton 3 IWMO, : Princeton University 2: JAMSTEC 3: SAIC

mpiPOM-LETKF gues/restart.ncLETKF anal/restart.nc mean/ sprd/ ensfcst(mpiPOM) obs SSHA SST T&S U&V +2d Observation increments/innovations

LETKF runnumobs data used 012SSHA (>500m)+MCSST+parm_infl (42%) 013SSHA (>500m)+MCSST+parm_infl (10.5%) 014SSHA(>500m) +MCSST+LC(uv, err = 0.05 m/s) 015SSHA(>500m)+MCSST +parm_infl (21%) 016SSHA(>500m) +MCSST+LC(uv, err = 0.1 m/s) OISSHA(>500m)+MCSST 90-day Experiments (2010/04/22 – 2010/07/21) LETKF parameters Horizontal localization scale7 (number of grids,1/3 degree) vertical localization scale (m)2000 Covariance inflation parameter (%)21 (10.5, 42) Observation error of SSHA (m)0.2 (0.1 & 0.05) Observation error of T ( 0 C)1.0 ( ) Time interval of LETKF (day)2 ensemble members20

LETKF015 Positions of the observation data assimilated in GOM, red: satellite SST; blue: AVISO SSHA Mooring locations near the Loop currents, red: measurements from ~80m to ~3000m Blue: measurements in deep (about 3000m) Loop Currents mooring locations

Model results are compared with 1. Satellite Sea Surface height (SSH); AVISO NRT map data ( 2. Loop Currents mooring data; (Dr. Peter Hamilton) 3. ADCP data. (

Comparison between model and AVISO SSH Color: model SSH; white line: AVISO SSH=0 line OI LETKF015

OI for the first 30 days OI for the entire 90 days 015 for the first 30 days 015 for the entire 90 days Blue: mooring; red: model -100m

OI for the first 30 days015 for the first 30 days -500m OI for the entire 90 days015 for the entire 90 days Blue: mooring; red: model

run V. Corrskillmean Std R. Rθuv spd ratio αm-αoαm-αo OI o o o o o o o o o o o o days Vector Corr Coef (R) & Angles averaged over 4 moorings as a function of depth

runRθ skillmean std ratio uv m-o OI o o o o o o o o o o 0.92 Comparison between model & d moorings (54 days) Vector Corr Coef (R) & Angles ( θ ) at d moorings

OI 015 Blue: mooring; red: model Comparison of model and mooring D over 54 days

LETKF comparison with 3 ADCPs ~ OI012

Summary  The LETKF data assimilation results are in good agreement with the observation data, including satellite SSH, ADCPs, and moorings.  LETKF data assimilation improves model simulation significantly, compared with the traditional OI assimilation results;  The Loop current and its eddies are well represented, especially in mid water depth.

Principles X b : background field Y o : observed variable H : the observation operator that performs the necessary interpolation and transformation from model variables to observation space H(X b ): background or first guess of observations W: weights determined by the estimated statistical error covariance of the forecast and the observations. X a : analysis Observation increments/innovations SCM, OI, 3D-Var, and KF…

OI

Corr. & RMS error of model with satellite SSHA (h>500m) in GOM

runRθskillmeanstd ratio uv m-o OI o o o o o o o o o runRθskillmeanstd ratio uv m-o OI o o o o o o o o5o o o m 100m Model comparison with ADCP in the northern Gulf

LETKF$runnumstatusobs data used 001C(90 days)SSHA only (msla) 002C (30days)SSHA+MCSST 003C(90 days)SSHA+T(ship) 004C(90 days)SSHA+TS(ship) 005C(90days)SSHA(>500m)+MCSST 006C(90 days)SSHA trackdata(>500m) 007C(90 days)SSHA trackdata(>500m)+MCSST 008C(90 days)SSHA trackdata(>500m)+MCSST+TS(ship) 009C(90days)SSHA (msla, >500m)+MCSST+TS(ship) 012C(90 days)SSHA (>500m)+MCSST+parm_infl (42%)