Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays in Support of Climate Research and Forecasting Contributions to the Global Ocean Observing System Nuku Hiva, Marquesas Islands

Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays

TAO/TRITON TAO/TRITON Array TAO/TRITON: A U.S./Japan collaboration Real-time data for improved description, understanding and prediction of El Niño and La Niña

ATLAS Mooring  Primary Measurements: Wind, Air Temp, RH, SST, 10 Ocean Temperatures to 500 m.  Enhanced Measurements: Rain, SWR, LWR, BP, Salinity, Currents.  TRITON mooring measure similar variables.

Current Conditions Near normal warm season conditions prevail

Current Conditions  Thermocline slopes down to west because of trade wind forcing.  Weak residual warm anomaly in the upper thermocline of the eastern Pacific in wake of a Kelvin wave passage.  Cold subsurface ( m) temperature anomalies; may indicate trend towards La Niña cooling.

 Forecast skill based on slow evolution of upper ocean thermal structure  First successful El Niño prediction in 1986  Forecast models show skill out to 12 months lead time  Models are not perfect: forecast skill limited by weather noise, errors in initial conditions, and model imperfections ENSO is Predictable

Nino 3.4 Forecasts for International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Nino 3.4

TAO/TRITON Plans  Measure surface salinity from all ATLAS moorings  Upgrade 5 moorings for full flux measurements as part of OceanSITES program.  Begin ATLAS and TRITON re-engineering efforts  Launch new TRITON data base in May 2005 (hourly data plus salinity available on WWW).  Transfer management responsibility for TAO from PMEL to NDBC.  Three year transition Oct 2004-Sept 2007  First year focus on data processing, delivery, display  PMEL staff provides operational support during transition

PIRATA A Program to Study Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability A U.S., French, Brazilian collaboration started in 1997

Proposed PIRATA Extensions

PIRATA Issues  PIRATA “Consolidation” Phase ( ) ends soon. Continue afterward?  What has the impact of the array been on understanding and prediction of tropical Atlantic climate variability?  Does the array meet present research requirements for tropical Atlantic climate studies?  Conference in Toulouse, France, October 2005 to consider these topics

Indian Ocean Science Drivers  Seasonal monsoon variability  Monsoon ENSO interactions  Indian Ocean Dipole (El Niño-like phenomenon in the Indian Ocean)  Intraseasonal oscillations and far field impacts (west coast US rainfall, hurricane formation, ENSO)  Warming trends since the 1970s. Indian Ocean Dipole Improved description, understanding and ability to predict:

Rationale for an Indian Ocean Component to the Global Ocean Observing  Compelling unanswered scientific questions;  Potential societal benefits from improved prediction;  One of the most poorly sampled regions of the world ocean;  Growing investments from India (2 new ships & major buoy program planned) and Japan (new Asian Monsoon Observing $300M over 10 yrs);  Summit on Earth Observations (July 2003) & Global Earth Observing System (GEO) establishes an agenda for international cooperation.

Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array First Session of CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel February 2004 Pune, India

RV Sagar Kanya Cruise 9 October-17 November Day Cruise 4 ATLAS & 1 ADCP PMEL in collaboration with the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) and the National Center for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR), Goa, India.

First Data from Indian Ocean ATLAS Mooring at 0°, 80.5°E Deployed 22 October 2004

Tide Gauge Network45 % complete Tide Gauge Network45 % complete 3˚x3˚ Argo Profiling Float Array25% complete 3˚x3˚ Argo Profiling Float Array25% complete 5˚x5˚ Surface Drifting Buoy Array35 % complete 5˚x5˚ Surface Drifting Buoy Array35 % complete Moored BuoyExistingPlanned Moored BuoyExistingPlanned Ocean Reference StationExistingPlanned Ocean Reference StationExistingPlanned High Resolution XBT and Flux LineExistingPlanned High Resolution XBT and Flux LineExistingPlanned Frequently Repeated XBT LineExistingPlanned Frequently Repeated XBT LineExistingPlanned Carbon Inventory & Deep Ocean Line Global 10 years Carbon Inventory & Deep Ocean Line Global 10 years Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Wind, and Ocean Color from Space Source: NOAA/OGP Towards a Sustained Global Ocean Observing System

Ocean Sites for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies (OceanSITES) OceanSITES program addresses requirements for: 1) Improved surface flux estimates; 2) Interdisciplinary time series reference sites. Several TAO/TRITON, PIRATA and Indian Ocean sites will be integrated into the OceanSITES program.

Sustained Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays and Process Studies 1) Arrays provide a) long time & large scale geographic context for short term intensive process-oriented field studies; b) platforms for additional measurements; c) opportunities for leveraging of resources. 2) Process studies may provide new information by which to guide modifications or upgrades of sustained measurement arrays. Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) Pacific Upwelling and Mixing Processes (PUMP)

TAO/TRITON Data Return Fishing Vandalism

PIRATA Data Return Fishing Vandalism