Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. CHAPTER 12 Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis Relevant cash flows Incorporating inflation Types of risk Risk analysis Real options

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Proposed Project Cost: $200,000 + $10,000 shipping + $30,000 installation. Depreciable cost: $240,000. Inventories will rise by $25,000 and payables by $5,000. Economic life = 4 years. Salvage value = $25,000. MACRS 3-year class.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Sales: 100,000 $2. Variable cost = 60% of sales. Tax rate = 40%. WACC = 10%.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Set up, without numbers, a time line for the project’s cash flows OCF 1 OCF 2 OCF 3 OCF 4 Initial Costs (CF 0 ) + Terminal CF NCF 0 NCF 1 NCF 2 NCF 3 NCF 4

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Equipment-$200 Installation & Shipping-40 Increase in inventories-25 Increase in A/P5 Net CF 0 -$260  NOWC = $25 – $5 = $20. Investment at t = 0:

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What’s the annual depreciation? Due to 1/2-year convention, a 3-year asset is depreciated over 4 years. YearRatexBasisDepreciation 10.33$240$ $240

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Operating cash flows: 1234 Revenues 200 Op. Cost, 60%-120 Depreciation Oper. inc. (BT) Tax, 40% Add. Depr’n Op. CF Oper. inc. (AT)

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Net Terminal CF at t = 4: Salvage Value 25 Tax on SV (40%)-10 Recovery of NOWC$20 Net termination CF$35 Q.Always a tax on SV? Ever a positive tax number? Q.How is NOWC recovered?

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Should CFs include interest expense? Dividends? No. The cost of capital is accounted for by discounting at the 10% WACC, so deducting interest and dividends would be “double counting” financing costs.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Suppose $50,000 had been spent last year to improve the building. Should this cost be included in the analysis? No. This is a sunk cost. Analyze incremental investment.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Suppose the plant could be leased out for $25,000 a year. Would this affect the analysis? Yes. Accepting the project means foregoing the $25,000. This is an opportunity cost, and it should be charged to the project. A.T. opportunity cost = $25,000(1 – T) = $25,000(0.6) = $15,000 annual cost.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. If the new product line would decrease sales of the firm’s other lines, would this affect the analysis? Yes. The effect on other projects’ CFs is an “externality.” Net CF loss per year on other lines would be a cost to this project. Externalities can be positive or negative, i.e., complements or substitutes.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Here are all the project’s net CFs (in thousands) on a time line: Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%. NPV = -$4.03. IRR = 9.3%. k = 10% Terminal CF

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. MIRR = ? 10% What’s the project’s MIRR? Can we solve using a calculator? % 106.1

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved TV = FV = Yes. CF 0 = 0 CF 1 = 79.7 CF 2 = 91.2 CF 3 = 62.4 CF 4 = 89.7 I= 10 NPV= INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPV PMT FV

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Use the FV = TV of inputs to find MIRR MIRR = 9.6%. Since MIRR < k = 10%, reject the project. INPUTS OUTPUT NI/YRPV PMT FV

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What’s the payback period? Cumulative: Payback = /89.7 = 3.3 years.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. If this were a replacement rather than a new project, would the analysis change? Yes. The old equipment would be sold, and the incremental CFs would be the changes from the old to the new situation.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. The relevant depreciation would be the change with the new equipment. Also, if the firm sold the old machine now, it would not receive the SV at the end of the machine’s life. This is an opportunity cost for the replacement project.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Q. If E(INFL) = 5%, is NPV biased? A. YES. k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP. Inflation is in denominator but not in numerator, so downward bias to NPV. Should build inflation into CF forecasts.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Consider project with 5% inflation. Investment remains same, $260. Terminal CF remains same, $35. Operating cash flows: Revenues Op. cost 60% Depr’n Oper. inc. (BT) Tax, 40% Oper. inc. (AT) Add Depr’n Op. CF

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Here are all the project’s net CFs (in thousands) when inflation is considered. Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%. NPV = $15.0. IRR = 12.6%. k = 10% Terminal CF Project should be accepted.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What are the 3 types of project risk? Stand-alone risk Corporate risk Market risk

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What is stand-alone risk? The project’s total risk if it were operated independently. Usually measured by standard deviation (or coefficient of variation). However, it ignores the firm’s diversification among projects and investor’s diversification among firms.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What is corporate risk? The project’s risk giving consideration to the firm’s other projects, i.e., diversification within the firm. Corporate risk is a function of the project’s NPV and standard deviation and its correlation with the returns on other projects in the firm.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What is market risk? The project’s risk to a well- diversified investor. Theoretically, it is measured by the project’s beta and it considers both corporate and stockholder diversification.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Which type of risk is most relevant? Market risk is the most relevant risk for capital projects, because management’s primary goal is shareholder wealth maximization. However, since total risk affects creditors, customers, suppliers, and employees, it should not be completely ignored.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Which risk is the easiest to measure? Stand-alone risk is the easiest to measure. Firms often focus on stand-alone risk when making capital budgeting decisions. Focusing on stand-alone risk is not theoretically correct, but it does not necessarily lead to poor decisions.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Are the three types of risk generally highly correlated? Yes. Since most projects the firm undertakes are in its core business, stand-alone risk is likely to be highly correlated with its corporate risk, which in turn is likely to be highly correlated with its market risk.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What is sensitivity analysis? Sensitivity analysis measures the effect of changes in a variable on the project’s NPV. To perform a sensitivity analysis, all variables are fixed at their expected values, except for the variable in question which is allowed to fluctuate. Resulting changes in NPV are noted.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What are the primary advantages and disadvantages of sensitivity analysis? ADVANTAGE: Sensitivity analysis identifies variables that may have the greatest potential impact on profitability. This allows management to focus on those variables that are most important.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. DISADVANTAGES: Sensitivity analysis does not reflect the effects of diversification. Sensitivity analysis does not incorporate any information about the possible magnitudes of the forecast errors.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Best ,000 Perform a scenario analysis of the project, based on changes in the sales forecast. Assume that we are confident of all the variables that affect the cash flows, except unit sales. We expect unit sales to adhere to the following profile: CaseProbabilityUnit sales Base ,000 Worst ,000

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. If cash costs are to remain 60% of revenues, and all other factors are constant, we can solve for project NPV under each scenario. Best 0.25 $57.8 CaseProbability NPV Base 0.50 $15.0 Worst 0.25 ($27.8)

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. E(NPV)=.25(-$27.8)+.5($15.0)+.25($57.8) E(NPV)= $15.0. Use these scenarios, with their given probabilities, to find the project’s expected NPV,  NPV, and CV NPV.  NPV = [.25(-$27.8-$15.0) 2 +.5($15.0-$15.0) ($57.8-$15.0) 2 ] 1/2  NPV = $30.3. CV NPV = $30.3 /$15.0 = 2.0.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. The firm’s average projects have coefficients of variation ranging from 1.25 to Would this project be of high, average, or low risk? The project’s CV of 2.0 would suggest that it would be classified as high risk.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. Is this project likely to be correlated with the firm’s business? How would it contribute to the firm’s overall risk? We would expect a positive correlation with the firm’s aggregate cash flows. As long as correlation is not perfectly positive (i.e., r  1), we would expect it to contribute to the lowering of the firm’s total risk.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. The project’s corporate risk would not be directly affected. However, when combined with the project’s high stand-alone risk, correlation with the economy would suggest that market risk (beta) is high. If the project had a high correlation with the economy, how would corporate and market risk be affected?

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. If the firm uses a +/-3% risk adjustment for the cost of capital, should the project be accepted? Reevaluating this project at a 13% cost of capital (due to high stand- alone risk), the NPV of the project is -$2.2. If, however, it were a low-risk project, we would use a 7% cost of capital and the project NPV is $34.1.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What subjective risk factors should be considered before a decision is made? Numerical analysis sometimes fails to capture all sources of risk for a project. If the project has the potential for a lawsuit, it is more risky than previously thought. If assets can be redeployed or sold easily, the project may be less risky.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What is real option analysis? Real options exist when managers can influence the size and riskiness of a project’s cash flows by taking different actions during the project’s life. Real option analysis incorporates typical NPV budgeting analysis with an analysis for opportunities resulting from managers’ decisions.

Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.All rights reserved. What are some examples of real options? Investment timing options Abandonment/shutdown options Growth/expansion options Flexibility options