© 2000 Roger Edwards Investigating the Potential of Using Radar to Nowcast Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Initiation over Southern Ontario 18 th Annual GLOMW.

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Presentation transcript:

© 2000 Roger Edwards Investigating the Potential of Using Radar to Nowcast Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Initiation over Southern Ontario 18 th Annual GLOMW Toronto, Ontario Y. Helen Yang / Patrick King Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada

page 2 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Motivation Lightning is a high-impact weather phenomenon! timely & accurately forecast lightning future lightning watch/warning products in Canada? 9-10 deaths & injuries in Canada each year! (Mills et al. 2008)

page 3 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Purpose To investigate the potential use of radar echoes in nowcasting cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning initiation –To determine a reflectivity threshold value that best predicts the onset of CG lightning –To find any correlation between radar echo tops and CG lightning initiation –To study differences (if any) between negative and positive CG lightning initiation in terms of radar characteristics

page 4 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Data Lightning data from CLDN –Detection efficiency ≥ 90%; location accuracy within 0.5 km Radar data from URP –Horizontal resolution ~ 1 km –Temporal resolution ~ 10 min –Data from the King City Radar (WKR) only ▪Domain of study

page 5 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Data ‘Airmass’ thunderstorms CG lightningNo CG lightningTotal negative 1st flash positive 1st flash both 1st flash cases of airmass thunderstorms from Jun- Aug 2008 A ‘case’ consists of one cell or a cluster of cells on a radar display that may or may not eventually produce lightning

page 6 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Methods: the premise Graupel-ice mechanism for cloud electrification –larger riming graupel and smaller ice crystals collide, and consequently electric charges are exchanged by these hydrometeors –rebounding ice crystals tend to become positively charged, while graupel particles become negatively charged –occur in the mixed-phase region in or near a storm updraft

page 7 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Methods: the premise cloud electrification within a storm updraft (MacGorman and Rust 1998) ice crystals graupel particles in mixed-phase layer main negative charge region constant altitudes where CG lightning is often initiated -20°C -10°C

page 8 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Methods What reflectivity threshold value at which temperature level can best predict the onset of CG lightning? Recall one of the objectives from earlier… Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] XXXXXn/a -15XXXXXn/a -10n/a XXXX altitude?? temperature upper air sounding data

page 9 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Methods: x-section of a case Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a -15Xn/a -10n/a 2120Z 18 Aug Z 18 Aug Z 18 Aug °C -15°C -20°C Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] XXn/a -15XXn/a -10n/a X Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] XXXn/a -15XXXXn/a -10n/a XXX Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] XXXXn/a -15XXXXn/a -10n/a XXX Hit (H) Miss (M) False (FA) Alarm Lead time [min] Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] HHHHn/a -15HHHHn/a -10n/a HHH Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] HHHHMn/a -15HHHHMn/a -10n/a HHHM Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] HHHHMn/a -15HHHHMn/a -10n/a HHHM Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] Mn/a Mn/a -10n/a 3020 M 2200Z 18 Aug 2008

page 10 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: r eflectivity threshold POD [%] Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a FAR [%]

page 11 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: reflectivity threshold CSI [%] Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a Average lead time [min] (±5 min) Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a FAR ave. lead time

page 12 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: echo top threshold Things to keep in mind: –Echo tops in relation to only warm season lightning –Echo tops of convections on warmer days higher than those during cooler days –Higher echo tops stronger updrafts –Weak updrafts cannot produce intense electrification needed to generate lightning

page 13 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: echo top threshold Maximum echo top prior to or at the start of CG lightning activity altitude of 7 km ~ -13 to -29°C levels

page 14 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: vs Things to keep in mind: –small sample size Number of lightning-producing cases ‘-’ first lightning flash ‘+’ first lightning flash Both ‘-’ & ‘+’ total –Cases with both polarities were counted towards both ‘-’ and ‘+’ cases 77 6

page 15 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: vs Initial lightning flash location to storm location of maximum reflectivity on MAXR [km] x

page 16 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: vs Initial lightning flash location to storm location of maximum reflectivity on MAXR [km] mean median longest shortest0.0 storm location of max. reflectivity highly-reflective graupel concentrated main negative charge cloud region (± 0.5)

page 17 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: vs Reflectivity threshold predictors Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10 n/a Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10 n/a Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10 n/a P O D F A R C S I ?

page 18 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: vs Reflectivity threshold predictors –Average lead time [min] (±5 min) Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a green = ‘-’ first lightning flashes red = ‘+’ first lightning flashes Temp level [ºC] Radar reflectivity threshold value [dBZ] n/a n/a -10n/a

page 19 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: summary -10ºC / 40 dBZ could best predict the onset of CG lightning –POD=88% FAR=16% CSI=76% –Lead time ~ 17±5 minutes Trade-off between the lead time and FAR Echo tops ≥ 7 km –used in conjunction with reflectivity threshold to improve accuracy Above results are supported by other studies –e.g., Krehbiel 1986; Gremillion and Orville 1999; Vincent et al. 2004; Wolf 2007

page 20 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Findings: summary Negative vs. positive first lightning flashes –Negative flashes were located closer to the main negative charge region in a storm cloud –No definitive difference in skills to forecast lightning of different polarities –Positive-first-lightning-producing storm clouds became strongly electrified faster than negative- lightning-producing storm clouds

page 21 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Conclusions Potential to use radar echo reflectivity to nowcast CG lightning initiation Much more work is needed in developing a lightning nowcast algorithm in a future nowcasting software application tool

page 22 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Thanks National Laboratory for Nowcasting & Remote Sensing Meteorology Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Ed Becker, Glenn Robinson, Paul Joe, Norman Donaldson, Dave Hudak, and Syd Peel

page 23 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Outline Why… What purpose… How… What findings… What conclusions… Thanks to…

page 24 – © 2000 Roger Edwards What findings… vs Magnitude of electric current [kA] mean median maximum minimum

page 25 – © 2000 Roger Edwards Methods Average altitudes corresponding to different temperature levels for the time periods examined in the study