Man Made Climate Change vs. Natural Variability Presented By: Mark Seaman Sam Atwood EESC W4400.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Volcanoes Large volcanic eruptions with high SO2 content can release SO2 into the stratosphere. This SO2 eventually combined with water vapor to make.

Advertisements

Earths Climate & Mankind Climate Climate Long-term (years and longer) average condition of a region Long-term (years and longer) average condition of a.

Climate Forcing, Sensitivity and Feedback Processes.

Climate Change & Global Warming: State of the Science overview December 2009 Nathan Magee.

3. Natural Climate Variability. SPM 1b Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years Approx. climate range over the 900 years.

1.Greenhouse Effect 2.The CO 2 Cycle, Long-Term Climate Change 3.Ice Ages and Short-Term Climate Change 4.Human-Induced Climate Change.

Earth’s radiative balance or, how I learned to stop worrying and love the greenhouse effect If the Earth had no atmosphere: T  T 4 = S / 4 (1 — A) T =

Global Warming and Climate Sensitivity Professor Dennis L. Hartmann Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle, Washington.

DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 15: 05/18/2010 ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast.

Natural and Human Influences on Climate Change

Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2007 Boston University Myneni L29:

Outline Review of Ocean Stratification and Circulation Recent historical Climate Change External Climate Forcings Natural Climate Variability Paleoclimatology.

Future climate (Ch. 19) 1. Enhanced Greenhouse Effect 2. CO 2 sensitivity 3. Projected CO 2 emissions 4. Projected CO 2 atmosphere concentrations 5. What.

Many past ice ages were caused by… 1.Volcanic activity 2.Photosynthesis 3.Prehistoric humans 4.Changes in the earth’s orbit 5.Sun spots.

CLIMATE CHANGE Global Temperatures: Past, Present, and Future.

Many past ice ages were caused by… 1.Volcanic activity 2.Photosynthesis 3.Prehistoric humans 4.Changes in the earth’s orbit 5.Sun spots.

1. How has the climate changed during the recent past? 2. What can we say about current climate change? 3. How do climate models work and what are their.

Part 6. Current, Past, and Future Climates Chapter 16 Climate Changes: Past and Future.

Class #11: Wednesday July 21 Earth’s changing climate Chapter 16 1Class #11 Wednesday, July 21.

Why do climates change ? Climate changes over the last millennium.

 Myth: What global warming? Earth has actually been cooling since ◦ 1998 was the warmest summer  It’s been cooler since then ◦ Not supported by.

5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.

The Basics of Global Climate Change. What is Climate? Climate is multi-year pattern of temperature, wind and precipitation…weather is day-t0-day conditions,

The Climate is Warming: Dr. Bruce A. Wielicki NASA Langley Research Center The Climate is Warming: So Expect More Blizzards… Dr. Bruce A. Wielicki NASA.

EARTH’S CLIMATE PAST and FUTURE SECOND EDITION CHAPTER 16 Climate Changes During the Last 1000 Years WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN © 2008 W. H. Freeman and Company.

Chapter 14 Climate. Defining Climate Climate = long term weather patterns… – Averages and variations in temp., precip., wind, etc. Normals: – 30+ year.

Unit VIII. Global Warming A. 20th Century Warming B. A perspective on 20th century warming. C. Causes of Global Warming Greenhouse gases Solar variability.

I. I.Climate Change – Greenhouse Gases A. A.Background Greenhouse Effect Gases absorb heat Natural Greenhouse Effect Mean planetary temperature = 15 o.

Science, Society and Solutions

Chapter 14: Climate change The earth’s changing climate The earth’s changing climate Possible causes of climatic change Possible causes of climatic change.

Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years Thomas J. Crowley Presentation by Jessica L. Cruz April 26, 2001.

Climate Change- the way the Earth has constantly evolved and changed temperature throughout history.

Climate Change and Global Warming Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Symposium on Energy for the 21 st Century.

NATS 101 Lecture 33 Natural Climate Variability. What is Climate Change? Climate change - A significant shift in the mean state and event frequency of.

Unit VII. Global Warming Is the planet warming? How do we know? How confident are we? If it is warming, how long has it been warming? How unusual is the.

Modern Climate Change Darryn Waugh OES Summer Course, July 2015.

Projecting changes in climate and sea level Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Jonathan Gregory Walker.

Global Energy Balance and the Greenhouse Effect What determines Earth’s surface temperature? What is the history of CO 2 on Earth? ultravioletinfrared.

Module 4 Changes in Climate. Global Warming? Climate change –The pattern(s) of variation in climate (temperature, precipitation) over various periods.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007:

International Environment Forum Conference Ottawa October 12 th, 2007 John M R Stone Carleton University.

Large-Scale Temperature Changes During the Past Millennium Michael E. Mann, Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Smithsonian Environmental.

CHAPTER 15 THE EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE CHAPTER 15 THE EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE.

TOPIC III THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT. SOLAR IRRADIANCE SPECTRA 1  m = 1000 nm = m Note: 1 W = 1 J s -1.

Causes of Landscape Pattern. Temporal variation in abiotic factors: Milankovitch Cycles Changes in the earth’s orbital parameters Changes in the earth’s.

Burning issues at climate science – policy interface Judith Curry.

Edexcel AS Geography Unit 1 – Global Challenges (6GE01) World at Risk Climate change and its causes – Part B.

Prof. Gerbrand Komen (ex-) Director Climate Research KNMI 20 November 2008 KNGMG Conference Climate change facts - uncertainties - myths.

Modelling the climate system and climate change PRECIS Workshop Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29 th June – 3 rd July 2015.

Aerosols and climate - a crash course Marianne T. Lund CICERO Nove Mesto 17/9-15.

I. I.Climate Change – Greenhouse Gases A. A.Background Greenhouse Effect Gases absorb heat (not light) Natural Greenhouse Effect Mean planetary temperature.

The Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

Discuss the relationship between climate and biomes.

1 MET 112 Global Climate Change MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 12 Future Predictions Eugene Cordero San Jose State University Outline  Scenarios.

History of Climate Change  During earth’s history, climate has generally been warmer than it is today, but is periodically interrupted by short cooler.

Natural Causes of Climate Change  Solar Variability  Volcanoes  Atmospheric Composition  Earth Surface Properties  Return Exam 3 For Next Class: Read.

CHAPTER 15 THE EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE CHAPTER 15 THE EARTH’S CHANGING CLIMATE.

Climate Change and Global Warming Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Waxter Environmental Forum Sweet Briar College.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Pages 2k consortium Not enough data in Africa.

Burning issues at climate science – policy interface Judith Curry.

Causes of Global Warming. “Over the last few decades there’s been much more evidence for the human influence on climate…. We’ve reached the point where.

Climate and Change How and why has climate changed in the past? Learning Objectives: To understand that climate has changed in the past through.

Causes of Global Warming. “Over the last few decades there’s been much more evidence for the human influence on climate…. We’ve reached the point where.

IPCC First Assessment Report 1990 IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 IPCC Fourth Assessment.

Natural Causes of Climate Change

Greenhouse Effect Presented By: Janet Fang Sam Atwood EESC W4400.

Global Climate Change: Past and Future

Earth’s Climate & Mankind

Climate Change.

PALEOCLIMATE IMPLICATIONS FOR RECENT HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE

Presentation transcript:

Man Made Climate Change vs. Natural Variability Presented By: Mark Seaman Sam Atwood EESC W4400

2 Benin Natural Variability in the Climate System Long-Term: Glacial / Interglacial Periods Variability over 10s to 100s of thousands of years Max ~ 4°C to 6°C change over a Glacial / Interglacial cycle Variations in Orbit, and Ice Sheet Cover and other Feedbacks Short-Term: Last several Millennia Max +/- 0.2°C change over a century Solar Irradiance and Volcanism Not constant on all time or spatial scales “Little Ice Age” and “Medieval Warm Period” Source: Jones, P.D., and M.E. Mann (2004)

3 Anthropogenic Impact on Climate System Typical natural range of variability exceeded in 20th Century +0.6 to +0.9°C change Man Made Forcings Physically understood mechanisms Greenhouse Gas Levels Climate Sensitivity: 1.5°C to 4.5°C with doubling of CO 2 Sulfate Aerosols Land Use Changes Last half of 20th Century Anthropogenic impacts dominate over Natural Variability Source: Jones, P.D., and M.E. Mann (2004)

4 Temperature Variations in Last Millennium Source: IPCC Climate change Synthesis report

5 Primary Take Home Points Man Made Climate Change is different from Natural Variability in the Climate System This difference: Timescale: The time of the change is quicker Spatial scale: Mean trends for the entire planet Magnitude: The direction and amount of change Questions?