Highway Risk Mitigation through Systems Engineering

2 Critical Infrastructure (CI) System Transportation CI System of Systems (SoS) Major Cities City Boundary Network Terms and Definitions

3 Movement of Goods Trucks Peak Traffic Normal Traffic Other Traffic Days of Operation Terms and Definitions

4 Node Arc  Link Disconnect Steady State Highway Defined Links Worst Link Best Link Terms and Definitions

5 Objective The objective of this dissertation is to develop a methodology, using a SE approach, and apply the methodology to develop a mathematical model, using performance metrics such as travel time and flow, to simulate the impacts K Links disconnects have on highway networks of major metropolitan cities

6 Objective –Two Objective Steps 1. Systems Engineering Approach 2. K Links with Highest Affect on Network

7 Research Significance Contribution: This dissertation provides officials a decision-making methodology and tool for resource allocation and risk mitigation –Metrics that measure the performance of the network given disconnects occurring –Ranking of K Links affecting the network the most

8 Research Significance Decision Making Methodology and Tool i, j

9 Research Significance Algorithm for finding efficiently the K Links with the greatest impact on the network Minutes Accuracy Accuracy Vs. Time

10 Brief Literature Review SE –Osmundson et al, The Journal of The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 2004 –Tahan et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005 –Bahill et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005 –Blanchard et al, “Stems Engineering and Analysis”, 1990 –INCOSE, “Systems Engineering Handbook”, 2004 –Hazelrigg, “Sys. Eng.: An Approach to Information-Based Design” 1996 –Miller et al, “Systems Engineering Management”, 2002 –Stock et al, “Strategic Logistics Management”, 1993 –Ibarra et al, Conference for Systems Engineering, 2005 –Blanchard, “Logistics Engineering and Management”, 2004 –US Department of Homeland Security, “Budget in Brief, Fiscal Year 2005”

11 Brief Literature Review Modeling –Osmundson et al, The Journal of The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), 2004 –Bahill et al, The Journal of The INCOSE, 2005 –Sathe et al, Transportation Research Board, 2005 –Jain et al, Transportation Science, 1997 –Arroyo et al, Transportation Research Board, 2005 –Rardin, “Optimizations in Operations Research”, 1998 –Rinaldi et al, IEEE Control System Magazine –Murray-Tuite, Dissertation, 2003

12 The Systems Engineering Process Defining the System – System of Systems

13 The Systems Engineering Process Need Analysis Stakeholders City State and Federal Business Society

14 The Systems Engineering Process Requirements –Mission Definition –Performance and Physical Parameters –Use Requirements

15 The Systems Engineering Process Components Transportation CI SoS INPUT Disconnects Hrs of Op. PROCESS Mathematical model Attributes Flow Distance Links Nodes Efficiency of model Relationships Movement of Goods Efficiently Finding K Links Perf. of Defined Links OUTPUT Performance Disconnects Hours of operation

16 The Systems Engineering Process Ground Rules and Assumptions –Highway –Major Cities –Steady State –Disconnect –Shortest Path –Snapshot of System

17 The Systems Engineering Process Metrics –Performance of Network Travel Time Throughput –Solution – Processing Time of Model (as a function of OD table and network topology) (OD) Links Model / Algorithm Time Accuracy

18 The Systems Engineering Process System Requirements System Solution Validate & Verify Actual Model System Objective City Boundary Section of City Small NetworkEnumeration Processing Time Functional Analysis Enumeration Processing Time

19 Model Most naive process –Disconnect Link (L i,j ) subject to Time (t n ) –Simulate Network Performance –Connect Link (L i,j ) –Repeat until all links tested

20 Model Objective –Performance of Network based on Defined Links Constraints –Mathematical model of how the system responds to changes in variables Variables –Time of Day –Disconnected Links

21 Example of Model: Effects of Disconnect on Link (a,b) Time, Flow  Avg. T = 2.5 Min/Veh

22 Example of Model

23 Example of Model: Performance for a General Metric OUTPUTS Sum of Performance, …,

24 Example of Model Links Performance Worst Best OUTPUTS 0 is threshold K Links = {2,11}, …, {1,12} affecting the Transportation CI the most

25 Output Performance: Travel Time/Throughput I35WI35E I45 I35WI35E Hwy 75 I20 I30 I20 Input Single Disconnect; 1/0 Variables Temporal Time of Day: I =1, 2, 3 (peak, norm, other) Links: l =(i,j), [(i+1), (j+1)],…, (i+n, j+n) L1L2L3 L8L7L6 L5 L4 L9 Information Flow I=1 Network

26 Restricting the Search Space –Find least reliable links –Find largest/lightest flow Approximation Methods –“Quickly” find “Good” solution Ideas for Improving Algorithmic Model Efficiencies

27 Validation and Verification SE Approach –Integrations Process –Verify and Validate Requirements Model –Small Network –Enumeration –Efficiency of Model

28 Conclusion Transportation CI is important –To individuals’ way of life –To companies’ way of doing business Proposed a Methodology and Mathematical Model to Determine Impact of K Links Disconnects have on the Defined Links of a Network

29 Conclusion Research Significance –Society: A Methodology and Tool for Officials to use in the Decision Making Process –Engineering: A New Algorithm for Solving Complex Systems Efficiently

30 Questions What is cost of truck if delayed by 15 minutes Airplanes at $1,000 per minute – 2002 (Vacante) Show how it has practical implication Convert time to cost Tell city fathers what they need to fix and where do you beef up security and resources If you cannot go straight, then which way? Time to fix link? Minimize time to fix Suggestions to repair

31 Questions Minimize risk Which rout to take Link – Reliability of the system given a terrorist attack How much more time is it going to take to get to destination Minimize the time, increase throughput Value of dissertation: –This will tell you how to get around accidents in time and efficient manner Create fluid –Create situation where they do not get stuck in other jams Probability of accident increases on new route

32 Questions Focus on mitigation –How to mitigate time loss and improve throughput Alternate routes for final destination is least amount of time

33 Outline Terms and Definitions Objective Research Significance Brief Literature Review The Systems Engineering (SE) Process

34 Outline Network Ideas for Improving Algorithmic Model Efficiencies Validation and Verification Conclusion

35 Non-Eventful Days Construction established and on-going Mon – Fri

36 Example of Model Time Number of Vehicles traveling from Origin to Destination during Off-Peak Period

37 Example of Model: Routing Assignment Time, Flow qt

38 Example of Model: Effects of Disconnect on Link (a,b) Time, Flow  Avg. T = 2.5 Min/Veh