1 Short Course on Meteorological Applications of Aircraft Weather Data Future Plans – Opportunities for the Private Sector January 14, 2007 Kevin Johnston and David Helms NOAA/NWS

2 IUOS and U.S. AMDAR IUOS Phase I Future Plans

3 What is IUOS? Mission and Requirements Space IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air observation requirements; and future validated requirements for: Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution New observations of environmental parameters Data Management and Communications (DMAC) Upper-air observation requirements space: Geographical Extent: Global Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun Temporal Range: Warnings to Global Climate Change Prediction Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, ….

4 What is IUOS? Characteristics IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be: Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS Final Operating Capability: “Optimal” mix of NOAA and non-NOAA observation platforms including both in situ and remote sensors based on NOSA Architecture Principles IUOS Platforms and Sensors

5 Collect and Validate requirements Surveyed Users Scientific Literature “Heritage” Requirements (e.g. FMH-3) NOAA CORL (Program Input) Phenomenological Analysis Establish Requirements Domain Threshold: Minimum performance operationally useful Objective: Maximum operationally useful performance IUOS Requirements Methodology 70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric soundings collected every 2 hours 70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric soundings every 75 km

6 IUOS Missions Supported Current verses Objective Resolution Requirements ▼ ▼ Reference: Schlatter, et al, 2005: A Phenomenological Approach to the Specification of Observational Requirements ▼ ▼ Current Objective Req.

7 IUOS End State Notion View Aircraft Observations Key to Reaching Resolution Goals Profilers CAPs and CAPs……… Rawinsonde102 Rawinsonde…………102 Current andfuture Current and future AMDAR AMDAR……………….100 Total Soundings…… 387 Rawinsonde

8 IUOS Roadmap Phased Approach Deploy Phase 1 – Regional In Situ Soundings Phase 2 – Integrated Regional Soundings Requirements Analysis PPB Phase 3 – Integrated Radar Deploy Req’s Analysis PPB Deploy Req’s Analysis PPB IOC FOC IOC FOC IOC FOC

9 IUOS Phase 1: Regional In Situ Soundings Radiosonde/WV Aircraft Obs In FY06-07: Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor derived data Evaluate implications of –forecasters using different data source and, –reaction of broader US weather enterprise. Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation In FY08-09: Begin phase 1 implementation

10 Phase 1: Adaptive Sounding Strategy Notional Plan Use alternative sounding from commercial aircraft if WV instrumented aircraft has a scheduled ascent or descent at an airport which is within: XX miles of radiosonde site YY minutes of radiosonde valid time CONOPS: Lead Meteorologist at closest WFO coordinates sounding strategy Short (<3 hrs) and long term (6 month) public notices disseminated indicating product availability and associated WMO Heading and circuits Soundings from aircraft publicly available in near real-time Alternative sounding strategy limited to: 1 of 2 sounding launches per radiosonde station (initially) CONUS Non-GUAN stations Outcomes: Cost avoidance from radiosonde expendables Redundant observations eliminated Greater % of Data Requirements Achieved

11 Adaptive Sounding Strategy: Weather Enterprise Input A few questions… How do you currently use radiosonde observations? What do you know about atmospheric observations from commercial aircraft? What transition issues might you have with use of aircraft observations as an alternative to radiosonde observations? How can NOAA best communication data quality issues associated with aircraft observations? How does the proposed adaptive sounding strategy timeline impact you? How can we recruit Weather Enterprise contacts to answer these and other issues associated with the Adaptive Sounding Strategy???

12 Now: 25 WVSSII sensors on United Parcel Service B-757 aircraft since March 2005 (NOAA) 60 TAMDAR sensors on Mesaba Saab 340 Aircraft since December 2004 (NASA) 1,700 aircraft contributing to the U.S. AMDAR Next 1-2 Months: Contract award of NOAA RFP for installation and operation of Water Vapor Data from Commercial Aircraft, negotiations on-going Phase 1 Implementation: Data distribution issues need to be worked if data are to be freely distributed Radiosonde release schedule changes and AMDAR data availability will be coordinated with U.S. Weather Enterprise End-State Plan: Calls for 1,600 aircraft collecting water vapor observations Optimization of vertical profilers from airlines critical to allow for expansion of AMDAR and implementation of NOAA’s IUOS. Future Directions: Commercial Aircraft Observations

13 Questions???