CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar 1pm, April 7, 2010 Kevin Werner These slides: PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES

Outline March Weather Review Snow States Water Supply Forecasts Web Reference:

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Web Reference: Snow: Mar 4 (above) Apr 6 (right)

Web Reference: Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)

Web Reference: Snow: Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo)

Web Reference: Snow: San Juan Basin

Web Reference: Snow: Bear River

Web Reference: Snow: Six Creeks in Salt Lake County

Web Reference: Snow: Lower Colorado

Last 7 days… Web Reference: <- Last 30 days

Last 7 days

NRCS daily forecast update 7 day change scince April 1

Forecast Precipitation Web Reference: Mostly dry for the rest of this week and weekend Storm pattern expected for next week. Details still fuzzy but event could be significant for parts of the basin

Forecast Precipitation: Next Week’s Storm Current weather forecast model solutions for 14 day period precipitation totals: NOAA’s GFS (left) and European’s ECMWF (right). Both models show a major long wave trough affecting the southern half first (~Tues, 4/13) and then the northern half (~Thurs, 4/15).

El Nino Update Web Reference: and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSOhttp://

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Web Reference: April 1, 2010 Water Supply Forecasts Highlights: Dry conditions continue in much of the Upper Colorado and Great Basins Forecasts generally lower by 5-15% from March 1 in upper Colorado Basin Forecasts in northern Great Basin tempered by recent storm. Lower basin melt out underway

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1580/50% 3340/72% 1050/85% Average contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow: Green River-Green River, UT34% Colorado River-Cicso, UT50% San Juan River-Bluff, UT13% ESP 50% forecast guidance March 1March 29 no qpf – qpf Green R – 1587 Colorado R – 3235 San Juan R – 824

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Online Publication Web Reference:

April 1, 2010 Peak Flow Forecasts Highlights: Low flood risk potential in upper basin Lower basin at some risk if a significant precipitation event were to coincide with snow melt. Most streamflow recreation points not expected to reach minimum thresholds Weather patterns over the next 2 months will greatly influence actual peak flows Web Reference:

Updates: Automatic update customized to what you need. p/govdelivery.html

More Resources Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts Tentative May water supply & peak flow webinar: 10am May 7 Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested

CBRFC Open House Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage August 18, 2010 Salt Lake City, UT More details to come

Kevin Werner CBRFC Service Coordination Hydrologist Phone: Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….