Course Evaluation Take out your computer or go to Lubrano and complete your course evaluation. If you have already completed it for this course, than you may use the first 12 minutes as you please. You might want to look at the solutions to last night’s HW on your table or start the review HW (HW 28) Please take the time to write thoughtful responses as I really do use these and take the feedback (both good and bad) into account. When you are done, sign your name. This counts as a HW credit!

Honors Precalculus: WARM-UP You have just witnessed a crime in class (a hungry student stealing a donut from Mr. Young’s desk). The witness identified the suspect as being a male (but is not sure who the male was). The class consists of 4 males and 10 females. Mr. Young tests your reliability as a witness under similar circumstances and finds that you correctly identify the gender of the suspect 75% of the time and fail 25% of the time. What is the probability that the person involved in the crime was male given that the witness identified the person as being male?

2 Interesting BAYESIAN Probability PROBLEMS Nicole Brown was murdered at her home in Los Angeles on the night of June 12,1994. The Prime suspect was her husband 0.J.Simpson, at the time a well-known celebrity famous both as a TV actor and as a retired professional football star. This murder led to one of the most heavily publicized murder trials in U.S. during the last century. The fact that the murder suspect had previously physically abused his wife played an important role in the trial. The famous defense lawyer Alan Dershowitz, a member of the team of lawyers defending the accused, tried to belittle the relevance of the fact by stating that only 0.1% of the men who physically abuse their wives actually end up murdering them. Question: Was the fact that O.J.Simpson had previously physically abused his wife irrelevant to the case?

Another Similar Example: 99.9% of the time when a person drives drunk they do NOT get into a fatal accident. Therefore, driving drunk is safe.

But….. Of fatal accidents in 2009, 32 percent involved alcohol-impaired drivers. (statistic comes from Pennsylvania). In addition… For fatal crashes occurring from midnight to 3 a.m., 66 percent involved alcohol-impaired driving.

One more example: Two identical boxes. One of them contains 10 balls numbered The other one contains 100 balls numbered You don't know if the box on the left contains 10 or 100. You use a coin flip to choose one of the boxes and ask a friend to pick a ball at random from it. The ball he picks has the number 9 written on it. What is the probability that the box you chose contained 10 balls?

HW 28: Review for the Quiz on Tuesday (Wed. for 1 st Period) For tonight, complete 4 problems from #1-8 AND either 9 or 10. Of course it might be wise to complete them all or at least be comfortable with them all. SOLUTIONS ARE POSTED ONLINE!

If needed… An home insurance company finds that the probability that a homeowner has a claim in any given year is They find that the homeowners likely to have repeated claims make up about 15% of their policy holders and have a rate of 0.2 claims per year. Calculate the probability that a homeowner will have repeated claims if there is a claim in the homeowner's first year with the company.