Climate Variability in the Southeast NIDIS Southeast Pilot, Apalachicola Workshop Apalachicola, FL April 27, 2010 David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Variability in the Southeast NIDIS Southeast Pilot, Apalachicola Workshop Apalachicola, FL April 27, 2010 David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University

Seasonal Rainfall Patterns January Average Rainfall June Average Rainfall Nearly 60% of annual rainfall in west-central Florida comes in the months of June through September.

Typical Recharge in North Georgia - Courtesy SERFC

Response of Hydrologic Systems Apalachicola at Chattahoochee

Georgia Annual Rainfall

The El Niño /La Niña Cycle The El Niño /La Niña cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast.

Winter Jet Stream Patterns El Niño La Niña

El Niño Effects on Precipitation

La Niña Effects on Precipitation

ENSO and Flow Rates Apalachicola at Chattahoochee

Probabilistic Nature of Forecasts March - El Niño March - La Niña Normal 5.1 in.

Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

Current Conditions - Current Conditions - El Niño is here!

El Niño Impacts on Yield

For More Information