Contraceptives Costing and Securing Financing, The Nigerian Experience Bose Adeniran, Mohammed Kilgori, Amina Abubakar, Abdullahi Maiwada and Obi Oluigbo, Kigali -March 2010.

Program Assumptions Unmet need according to 2008 DHS is 20.2%, total prevalence is 14.6%. Assumption: reduce all current unmet need by 10% per year over the next 9 years (by 2018). Result: Total CPR increases 2% per year each year for the next 10 years.

Demographic Forecasts (All Sectors) Condoms*96,676,904110,094,824124,155,696138,884,592154,301,632170,433,856 Injectables3,491,1103,975,6464,483,4015,015,2775,572,0046,154,556 IUDs142,816158,401174,711191,753209,572228,228 Implants*5,7136,3366,9887,6708,3839,129 Pills8,559,9349,747,97810,992,95112,297,07113,662,12315,090,497 * Demographic projection for condoms LOW due to HIV/STI prevention use and LOW for Implants due to intensive introduction phase

Estimated Costs (Projected Consumption) Public Sector Condoms*$2,726,289$3,104,674$3,501,191$3,916,545$4,351,306$4,806,235 Injectables$2,619,729$2,983,325$3,364,344$3,763,464$4,181,232$4,618,379 IUDs$64,924$72,009$79,424$87,171$95,271$103,752 Implants*$151,007$167,474$184,708$202,735$221,581$241,300 Pills$3,246,783$3,697,408$4,169,626$4,664,279$5,182,043$5,723,826 Total$8,808,732$10,024,890$11,299,293$12,634,194$14,031,434$15,493,491 * Demographic projection for condoms LOW due to HIV/STI prevention use and LOW for Implants due to intensive introduction phase

Social Marketing Sales Product Gold Circle 159,331, ,425, ,653, ,694, ,543,936 Lifestyle ,294 1,096, ,532 FC2 Female Condom ,858 Lubrica 676,900 76, , ,365 95,266 Depo provera 571, ,200 1,056,800 1,376,200 1,217,650 Noristerat 490, , ,700 1,002, ,000 Norigynon ,000 10,000 IUCD 37,680 45,810 53,160 77,100 66,810 Cycle Bead - - 6,300 9,500 6,842 Jadelle ,525 5,998 Duofem 3,819,850 4,524,300 5,285,250 5,593,950 6,082,650 Locon-F ,700 Postinor-2 676, , , , ,850 Pregnon EC ,610 46,440 64,440

Social Marketing Forecast Assumptions ProductAssumption Condom FemaleIncrease 2.3%/year, pipeline filling =33% in year 1 Condom MaleStraight line, 5 years of sales data Depo provera 150mg injStraight line, 5 years of sales data Locon-FApplied population growth to 2009 sales IUCD16% growth projected from distribution figures DuofemStraight line, 5 years of sales data Noristerat 200mg injStraight line, 5 years of sales data Jadelle implantApplied population growth to 2009 sales Norigynon (1-month Injectable)Half percent of Noristerat and Depo (new product) Emergency ContraceptionStraight line, 5 years of sales data

Sales Forecast, Social Marketing Product Condom Female139,101142,300145,573148,921152,346155,850 Condom Male207,486,689217,908,808228,330,927238,753,046249,175, ,597,284 Depo provera 150mg inj1,568,6601,759,1901,949,7202,140,2502,330,7802,521,310 Locon-F23,22223,75624,30224,86125,43326,018 IUCD77,52989,968104,403121,154140,593163,150 Duofem6,739,7757,299,3007,858,8258,418,3508,977,8759,537,400 Noristerat 200mg inj1,078,8201,175,2801,271,7401,368,2001,464,6601,561,120 Jadelle implant *6,1366,2776,4216,5696,7206,897 Norigynon (1- month Injectable)12,97314,37915,78517,19118,59820,004 Emergency Contraception1,071,2721,160,2881,249,3031,338,3181,427,3341,516,349 * Sales projections may be LOW for Implants due to intensive introduction phase

Estimated Costs, Social Marketing Product Condom Female $87,435$89,446$91,503$93,607$95,760$97,963 Condom Male $5,841,527$6,134,948$6,428,370$6,721,792$7,015,213$7,308,635 Depo provera 150mg inj $1,177,082$1,320,051$1,463,019$1,605,988$1,748,957$1,891,926 Locon-F $10,756$11,003$11,256$11,515$11,780$12,051 IUCD $35,243$40,897$47,459$55,074$63,911$74,164 Duofem $2,565,287$2,778,253$2,991,218$3,204,184$3,417,150$3,630,116 Noristerat 200mg inj $1,550,015$1,688,606$1,827,196$1,965,787$2,104,378$2,242,968 Jadelle implant* $162,188$165,915$169,721$173,633$177,625$181,722 Norigynon (1- month Injectable) $18,639$20,659$22,679$24,699$26,721$28,741 Emergency Contraception $406,289$440,049$473,809$507,568$541,329$575,088 Total$11,854,460$12,689,827$13,526,232$14,363,849$15,202,823$16,043,374 * Sales projections may be LOW for Implants due to intensive introduction phase

Securing Financing Crucial aspects of Family Planning programming. Strong leadership and coordination skills. Participation of key stakeholders at the top level: – FMOH-Minister, Directorates of Family Health Division and; Logistics and planning. – Donor agencies-USAID, DFID and UNFPA – Implementing agencies-JSI (Deliver Project) and SFH (Improved Reproductive Health In Nigeria (IRHIN) project.

Funds Mobilized for 2010 Social Marketing needs covered by USAID, DFID and Cost recovery funds. Public Sector Needs – $8.8M – FP team have raised $6,645,812 from various sources including UNFPA, DFID, USAID and GON. – Commodities have been ordered for this period – Efforts are in place to address the funding gap of $2.2M.