64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference NOAA Tropical Program Delivering on the Promise of Partnerships Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator & Director, National Weather Service March 1, 2010 Savannah, GA

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 2 Outline  Constants & Changes  Our Partnerships  Areas of Emphasis NOAA is the national lead for hurricane forecasts and warnings

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 3 Constants & Changes  Science is a Priority for President Obama  NOAA Climate Service  FY 11 Request:  $1 Billion for NWS  $4M investment in Coastal Hazard Mitigation

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 4 Constants & Changes HFIP Budget  FY 2009 Supplemental  $17 million supplemental spent  FY 2010 Appropriations  $23 million  FY 2011 President’s Budget Request  $23 million

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 5 Constants & Changes House/Senate Initiatives  Senate (S.1485):  Objectives:  Improve understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones  Develop resilient infrastructure  Mitigate impacts on coastal populations  Provide training for next generation researchers and forecasters

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 6 Constants & Changes House/Senate Initiatives  House (H.R. 327):  Objectives:  NOAA and NSF to set research objectives  Assemble experts focused on:  Improving tropical cyclone forecasting, resilient infrastructure, mitigating impacts on coastal communities, providing grants for research

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 7 Constants & Changes  Continued Use of Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks- Tool for information, education, and preparedness  Increasing use of high-res (T382) CFS coupled model forecast runs  Changes for the 2010 Season  NHC and CPHC to provide greater lead time in Watches and Warnings  Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale becomes operational

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 8 Our Partnerships  Expediting successful transition of research to operations  Example: success with advanced data assimilation testing led to changes in NCEP plans for operational data assimilation  Continuing to support Joint Hurricane Testbed, along with Developmental Test Center and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation  NUOPC:  AF, Navy, NASA, Academia  Computing:  DOE, NSF  Research:  NSF, Navy, NCAR, NASA, Academia

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 9 Our Partnerships Investment in the Future  HFIP provides the basis for NOAA co-leading with NSF, Navy and others a national effort to:  Develop a National Hurricane Research Agenda to provide new science  Apply new science and technology to the operational hurricane and storm surge warning and forecast problem  Significantly improve guidance to NHC (JTWC, CPHC) for hurricane track and intensity forecasts Significantly improve NOAA’s forecast services for tropical storms and hurricanes through improved hurricane forecast science and technology

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 10 Our Partnerships Recent Engagement  UM/UW effort for NSF Science and Technology Center  US Navy, and DOI Minerals Management Service 3 year National Ocean Partnership Program for Hurricane Intensity Research  $2.5M for first year  Penn State, Wisconsin, NCAR, others in area of High Resolution Modeling  ONR and NRL on Hurricane Forecast Technology Development  University of Miami, Florida International and University of South Alabama on Hurricane intensity research  Directed Research on ocean interaction (URI), ensemble data assimilation (CIRA/CSU) and cloud products (UMD)

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 11 Areas of Emphasis Science and Technology Infusion: Reduce Track and Intensity Error HFIP Goal: reduction by 50%  Track error improvements  Advanced data assimilation techniques and use of airborne radar data to initialize vortex both showing great promise

Hurricane Improvements Meeting the Nation’s Needs 12 The Future NWS Strategic Plan 2035  Draft Undergoing Internal Review  Issue in Spring for Public Comment  Need your input!