Selected Alaska Fiscal Data Sources (which I use all the time for my research and analysis) Gunnar Knapp Director & Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage January 12, 2016
Alaska Revenue Data
Most recent oil price data... 3
Daily oil price and production data...
Daily oil prices since FY12 5 The price was $32/barrel on January 8
Alaska Department of Revenue Revenue Sources Books 6
Every fall DOR releases a Fall Revenue Sources book with: - detailed information about state revenue sources - projections of future revenues Every spring DOR releases a shorter update to the projections. 7
The 2015 Fall Revenue Sources book was released December This should be required reading for any journalist covering Alaska fiscal issues!!!
The definitions in the Glossary are a very useful reference
Two dimensions to state revenues: The source of the revenues The restrictions on the revenues Most of the fiscal discussion is about unrestricted general fund revenues. But there are many other restricted revenues. 10
From the Glossary of the Fall 2015 revenue forecast 11
The state’s restricted revenues are much larger than its unrestricted revenues. 12
Permanent Fund investment earnings- ”restricted” by customary practice—but available to the legislature to spend by simple majority vote!
The price projections that the revenue projections are based on are never right.
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Permanent Fund information
Permanent Fund information
As Alaska becomes increasingly dependent on Permanent Fund investment returns (rather than oil revenues) some of the most important factors affecting Alaska’s fiscal future are becoming the rates of return earned by the Permanent Fund. Will these assumptions come true???