1 Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change Smart Growth America, The Urban Land Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change Smart Growth America, The Urban Land Institute

2 Transportation Greenhouse Gases: Three Legs of a Stool Vehicle Efficiency (mpg) Vehicle Efficiency (mpg) Fuel Greenhouse Gas content (Fuel GHG) Fuel Greenhouse Gas content (Fuel GHG) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Need progress on all three, but climate policy discussions have ignored VMT

3 US VMT Growth Projected to Outpace Vehicle & Fuel Improvements

4 Senate CAFE (35 mpg) + CA Fuel Standards (-10%): 40% above 1990 Levels in 2030

5 25% Less VMT with Compact Development

6 Atlantic Station vs. Henry County

7 1/3 Savings Due to Regional Accessibility

8 Alternative Site Plan Comparison

9 5% Savings Due to Site Design

20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact Development

11 Cities and CO2 Per household electricity consumption: City: 90.5 million BTU Town: million BTU Suburbs: million BTU Rural: million BTU (Energy Information Administration, 2001 Residential Energy Consumption Survey) Center for Neighborhood Technology

7-10% Reduction in Total CO 2 Emissions in 2050 Only Land Development Effects Only Transportation Sector And Essentially Permanent

13 But Will It Happen? Do Americans Want More Compact Development?

Gregg Logan, Managing Director, Robert Charles Lesser & Co., LLC “The Market for Smart Growth,” January 2007

15 The Market Is Changing Dramatically

People Turning 65 Annually Year ,000 1,500 2,000 Thousands People Turning 65 in Year

17 Decline in Households with Kids Household With Children 48% 33% 28% Without Children 52% 67% 72% Single13% 26% 28% Source: Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).

18 What Policies Do We Need?

19 Federal Policies 1. 1.Recognize the federal role in development and make it coherent 2. 2.Recognize the role of development in reducing GHG in the climate bill Increasing funds for transit and transportation legislation that is consistent with the goals of the climate bill 4. 4.Infrastructure funds for community retrofits 5. 5.Create more resources and technical assistance to “rewrite the rules” -- EPA’s Smart Growth Program