Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level.

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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Hydrological Modeling Andrew D. Gronewold

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 1: Management support Example: Advanced hydrologic prediction system (AHPS)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) Derivative outlooks weighting software Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) Thiessen polygon software Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT) Products

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Government agencies: United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Environment Canada (EC) United States Geological Survey (USGS) United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Management authorities and utilities: New York Power Authority (NYPA) Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Academic and research institutions: University of Michigan Wayne State University Case Western Reserve University Duke University Western Michigan University Other academic institutions Stakeholders and partners

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 2: Data management

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) Derivative outlooks weighting software Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) Thiessen polygon software Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT) Products

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Government agencies: United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Environment Canada (EC) United States Geological Survey (USGS) United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Management authorities and utilities: New York Power Authority (NYPA) Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Academic and research institutions: University of Michigan Wayne State University Case Western Reserve University Duke University Western Michigan University Other academic institutions Stakeholders and partners

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “A”: Predicting flows in ungauged basins

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Hydrological Modeling: summary 1.Hydrology program cornerstones solid foundation 2.Applying novel tools and filling gaps in research 3.Exciting transition period

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, Hydrological Modeling: summary