Global Manufactoring and Foreign Trade Statistics Why FTS cannot be the (only) source. Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Global Manufacturing Data needed for BOP (and SNA) Information needed for the compilation of „Manufacturing service on physical inputs owned by others“: Processing fee paid to the processor (including the goods acquired by the processor Additional information needed in order to compile Merchandize trade correctly: 1.Information about cross-border movement of goods without change of ownership 2.Goods purchased and sold abroad by the „owner“ 25 February 2012 Page 2 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Concept of Foreign Trade Statistics International merchandise trade statistics record all goods which add to or subtract from the stock of material resources of a country by entering (imports) or leaving (exports) its economic territory. This also includes goods for inward or outward processing.  No change-of-ownership-principle like BOP or SNA! 25 February 2012 Page 3 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Link between FTS and Global Manufacturing Case 1: Classic Goods for Processing 25 February 2012 Page 4 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank Country A Compiling Economy Country B Goods send abroad for processing (nature of transaction 41) Goods return abroad after processing (nature of transaction 51) FTS captures: Goods send abroad for processing and Goods returned after processing The difference of value of the Goods return and Goods send is the processing fee. Movement of goods Payments Processing fee

Link between FTS and Global Manufacturing Case 2: Advanced Goods for Processing 25 February 2012 Page 5 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank Country A Compiling Economy Country B Goods send abroad for processing (nature of transaction 42) Goods sold abroad after processing Country C Processing fee Sale of goods Movement of goods Payments FTS captures: Goods send abroad for processing

Link between FTS and Global Manufacturing Case 3: Global Manufactoring 25 February 2012 Page 6 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank Country A Compiling Economy Country B Goods processed in Coutry B Goods sold abroad after processing Country C Processing fee Sale of goods Purchase of goods Movement of goods Payments FTS captures: nothing

Summary Case 1: The Processing Fee can be calculated as the difference of value of „Goods return after processing“ and „Goods send abroad for processing“ Case 2: Methodological FTS cannot deliver all needed information of the calculation of the Processing Fee. The sale abroad has to be captured with a different source (direct reporting?). The processing fee cannot be calculated as the difference of the value of “Goods sold abroad (direct reporting)” and “Goods send abroad for processing” as the “Goods sold abroad (direct reporting)” include a dealers margins and holding gains and losses (e.g. value change of gold).  Processing Fee has to be collected directly! 25 February 2012 Page 7 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Summary Case 3: Methodological FTS cannot deliver any needed information of the calculation of the Processing Fee. The purchase and sale abroad has to be captured with a different source (direct reporting?). The processing fee cannot be calculated as the difference of the value of “Goods sold abroad (direct reporting)” and “Goods bought abroad (direct reporting)” as the “Goods sold abroad (direct reporting)” include a dealers margins and holding gains and losses (e.g. value change of gold).  Processing Fee has to be collected directly! 25 February 2012 Page 8 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Conclusion By definition FTS captures only movement of goods related with the territory of the compiling country. Global Manufacturing is not necessarily involving the territory of the compiling country.  FTS cannot be the source of the compilation of Global Manufacturing. Inconsistencies of the FTS to BOP and SNA are due to methodological reasons! 25 February 2012 Page 9 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Conclusion From a BOP-point of view: FTS must deliver information about movements of goods without change of ownership (nature of transaction 41, 42, 51, 52). BOP has to capture the Processing Fee itself (similar to any other service). BOP has to capture the changes of ownerships of goods itself (similar to the gross flows of merchanting). 25 February 2012 Page 10 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank

Thank you for your attention! Any Questions? 25 February 2012 Page 11 Simon Lohner, Deutsche Bundesbank