A Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center for the North American Carbon Program Robert B. Cook 1, Yaxing Wei 1, W. Mac Post 1, Peter E. Thornton 1, Deborah Huntzinger 2, Daniel M. Ricciuto 1, Kevin Schaefer 3, Andrew R. Jacobson 4, Ken Davis 5, Lisa Olsen 1, Michele Thornton 1, and Barbara Jackson 1 and many forward and inverse modeling teams, inventory teams, and tower investigators 1 Oak Ridge National Laboratory*, 2 University of Michigan, 3 National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, 4 Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, 5 Pennsylvania State University This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Agreement No. 09-TE issued through the Science Mission Directorate. North American Carbon Program All Investigator Meeting, New Orleans, LA, February 3, 2011 *ORNL is managed by the University of Tennessee-Battelle LLC under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. For more information: Bob Cook Thornton Mac Post Wei Regional – Continental Synthesis: Mac Post, Andy Jacobson, and Debbie Huntzinger, leads The objective of this activity is to combine observations and existing results from inverse and ecosystem models at the regional and continental scale to generate a reconciled view of the carbon cycle for North America. Data products associated with this activity are supported by MAST-DC and made available to project participants on a site Wiki and protected FTP server. Standard data use policies apply. U* screened, gap-filled fluxes with uncertainty Gap-filled meteorological forcing Ancillary biological datasets Model survey Data Products Introduction The Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center (MAST-DC) supports NACP by providing data products and data management services needed for modeling and synthesis activities MAST-DC is coordinating a Model-Data Intercomparison Synthesis to quantify and understand spatial and temporal distributions of carbon sources, sinks, and inventories from by synthesizing NACP observations and model outputs, from sites to regional / continental scales. Tall Towers Emissions Ring2 Atmospheric Transport Models Observations Satellite & Inventory Observations Satellite & Inventory Models Ecosystem & C Accounting Models Ecosystem & C Accounting Process Studies Process Studies Synthesis Flux Tower Flux Tower Land/Atmos C Flux “Top Down” “Bottom Up” 1.What are the magnitudes, spatial distribution, and interannual variability of carbon sources and sinks during the period 2000 – 2007? 2.What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3.How do carbon sources and sinks and our understanding of the underlying processes vary across scales (site – region, region – continent)? Synthesis Questions North American Carbon Program MAST-DC Support to other NACP Synthesis Activities MAST-DC provides data management support to several other NACP synthesis activities: 1.NACP Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project: Debbie Huntzinger and Anna Michalak, PIs 2.Mid-Continent Intensive Interim Synthesis: Stephen Ogle, Scott Denning and Ken Davis, leads 3.Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Synthesis: Steve Wofsy, Janusz Eluszkiewicz, and Arlyn Andrews, leads MAST-DC has complied information, data products, and data services that facilitate modeling and synthesis activities: Support for NACP: MAST-DC Products and Services 1.Detailed descriptions of 22 terrestrial biogeochemistry models (e.g., how they parameterize photosynthesis, respiration, and water balance) 2.Acquire, process, remap, and standardize model input and output from atmospheric inverse and terrestrial biogeochemistry models 3.Acquire, process, and standardize observations from flux towers, agricultural statistics, and forest inventories 4.Document data preparation 5.Place information onto project Wiki and FTP area for acquisition by participants Forward Models Inverse Models Monthly NEE (PgC/month) Mean Annual GPP (PgC/year) Monthly NEE (PgC/month) Source: Andy Jacobson Significant model-model differences in Net Ecosystem Exchange, especially among forward models. Shapes and depths of seasonal cycle vary considerably among models. Inversions tend to have sharper peak uptake. Comparison of NEE for Temperate North America: Inverse and Forward Models Comparison of Gross Primary Production for Temperate North America: Forward Models GPP (kg C m -2 month -1 ) Forward models' estimates of photosynthetic uptake vary by a factor of 2 to 3. (Source: Debbie Huntzinger) For the Interim Synthesis, 24 inverse modeling groups and 22 ecosystem modeling groups contributed existing model results for 2000 – The following are preliminary results. Comparison of Net Ecosystem Exchange: Inventory and Models Inventory-based estimates of forest C stocks were used to evaluate inverse and forward models. MAST- DC converted gridded model output into political state units areas for US and Mexico and Kyoto Protocol reporting units for Canada. Inverse models predict a larger continental-scale sink than forward models and inventories. Based on inventory data, “other lands” is a source, while for inverse models and forward models, “other lands” is a sink. NEE prediction for croplands in Canada and US from forward models has greater variety than from inverse models, but inverse models typically predict a greater carbon sink than forward models. The inventory estimate from croplands is adjusted with exported crops. Croplands NEE, Canada Forward ModelsInverse ModelsInventory Estimate Croplands NEE, U.S. Source Sink Source Sink NEE (Pg C / yr) Consumed where grown Exported Source: Dan Hayes Are the various measurement and modeling estimates of carbon fluxes at individual sites consistent with each other - and if not, why? To answer this question, this activity aims to Quantify uncertainty - inter- and intra-model uncertainty - observation uncertainty at multiple timescales Evaluate model performance - how is it linked to model structure? Site-Based Interim Synthesis: Peter Thornton, Kevin Schaeffer, Dan Ricciuto, and Ken Davis, leads The objective of this activity is to establish a quantitative framework that allows NACP investigators to answer the question: Expansion of Daymet to North America A key model input is Daymet, a daily 1-km gridded meteorological product for 1980 to Daily meteorological variables from over 350,000 site-years of data from 1980 to 2009 for Canada, US, and Mexico are used to generate Daymet. Daymet Model uses elevation and station data to generate gridded product Source: Dan Hayes Mean area-weighted average annual NEE (gC m-2 yr-1), 2000 to 2006 for forest lands, crop land, “other” and all land in each reporting zone, from inventory-based estimates against mean results from the sets of forward models and inverse models Half hourly random NEE uncertainties are estimated Annual uncertainty Selected Results Source: Dan Ricciuto 3-D surface of model performance Red arrow indicates the perfect model. optimized model (LoTEC) does best, followed by the ensemble mean (MEAN). The top three models in red box (ISOLSM, SiBCASA, and SiB3) had the same key characteristics for model performance from model survey: NEE = GPP – R, prescribed phenology, and hourly/half hourly timestep. The fourth best model (Ecosys) had two of these characteristics Taylor plot indicating model performance regarding interannual variability of models that participated in both the regional and site interim synthesis - Grid cells containing sites were extracted from regional runs and compared to site runs - Site models usually perform better. Indication of biases in regional driver data? Source: Schwalm et al. Source: Rackza et al. Taylor Skill Chi-Squared Normalized Mean Absolute Error Perfect Model