LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 Progress in the Joint OSSE System Lars Peter Riishojgaard and Michiko Masutani JCSDA

NCEP: Michiko Masutani, Jack Woollen, Yucheng Song, Steve Lord ECMWF: Erik Andersson KNMI: Ad Stoffelen, Gert-Jan Marseille JCSDA: Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Lidia Cucurull, Zaizhong Ma NESDIS: Fuzhong Weng, Tong Zhu, Haibing Sun, SWA: Dave Emmitt, Sid Wood, Steve Greco NASA/GFSC: Ron Errico, Runhua Yang, Will McCarty, Emily Liu, Michele Rienecker, Ron Gelaro NOAA/ESRL:Yuanfu Xie, Nikki Prive, Steve Weygandt Joint OSSE Team LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 NOAA OSSE Testbed initiative (USWRP Executive Committee): Bob Atlas, Steve Koch, …

LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 Role of a National OSSE Capability Impact assessment for future missions –Decadal Survey and other science and/or technology demonstration missions (NASA) –Future operational systems (NOAA) Objective way of establishing scientifically sound and technically realistic user requirements for observing systems Tool for assessing performance impact of engineering decisions made throughout the development phases of a space program or system Preparation/early learning pre-launch tool for assimilation users of data from new sensors

LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 Main OSSE components Data assimilation system(s) –NCEP/EMC GFS –NASA/GMAO GEOS-5 –NCAR WRF-VAR Nature run –ECMWF –Plans for embedded WRF Regional NR Simulated observations, including calibrated errors –Reference observations –Perturbation (“candidate”) observations Diagnostics capability –“Classical” OSE skill metrics –Adjoint sensitivity studies

LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 ECMWF Nature Run (Erik Andersson) Based on recommendations/requirements from JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO, SWA, NESDIS, ESRL “Low Resolution” Nature Run –Free-running T511 L91 w. 3-hourly dumps –May through June (Two “High Resolution” periods of 35 days each –Hurricane season: Starting at 12z September 27,2005, –Convective precipitation over CONUS: starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 L91 levecondition ls, one-hourly dump) High resolution period abandoned due to poor validation results

LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 Nature Run validation Purpose is to ensure that pertinent aspects of meteorology are represented adequately in NR Contributions from Emmitt, Errico, Masutani, Prive, Reale, Terry, Tompkins and many others Clouds Precipitation Extratropical cyclones (tracks, cyclogenesis, cyclolosis) Tropical cyclones (tracks, intensity) Mean wind fields ….

LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010 Simulation of observations (I), conventional Conventional observations: “anything other than satellite radiances” Conceptually simple: Resample NR at observation locations and add error Problem: For many observation types the locations depend on the atmospheric state: –Radiosondes (drift) –Satellite winds (tracking targets) –Aircraft obs (flight routing) –Ocean surface winds (thresholds and precip) This is NOT accounted for currently: Actual historical obs locations for 2005 are used –SWA working on more sophisticated approach to scatterometer winds and satellite AMVs Two approaches so far: –J. Woollen (NCEP), R. Errico (GMAO)

Observation simulation (II): Radiances Satellite radiances dominate both in terms of numbers and of impact Conceptually: Forward radiative transfer applied to NR input profiles Problem areas: –Treatment of clouds has substantial impact on availability and quality of observations, and on subsequent QC, thinning and ultimately assimilation results –Desire to avoid “identical twin” Radiative Transfer Models; conceptually one should be use one RTM for simulation and a different RTM for assimilation –NOT yet implemented in Joint OSSE Two different approaches: –H. Sun (NESDIS), R. Errico (GMAO) LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010

Radiance simulation steps (NESDIS/NCEP) Template data (in initial version, footprints used for operational data assimilation in the real year 2005 were used) DBL91 (Nature Run data at footprints to be simulated) 91 level 3-D data (12 Variables) 2-D data (71 Variables) Climatological data All information to simulate Radiances Simulated radiance data saved in ASCII or unpacked format. Radiance data to packed to WMO BUFR format, using information from template data. LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010

Version 1 Version 2 Latest version REAL OSSE Calibration for Joint OSSEs at NASA/GMAO Version 1 Calibration using adjoint technique Overall impact of simulated data seems realistic Tuning parameter for cloud clearing Surface emissivity Improved simulation of AMVs (Early results; courtesy of Ron Errico) LWG Meeting, Bar Harbor, 06/01/2010

Current status Joint OSSE collaboration continues to show progress –Extensive validation effort completed successfully –Calibration experiments performed by GMAO, NCEP and ESRL –Reference observing system simulation complete for initial experimental period (July-August 2005) –Wind Lidar project entering year 3 Ready for initial impact experiments (Michiko’s talk next) Preliminary simulated lidar winds available from SWA New post-doc on board (Zaizhong Ma) Issues: –The effort remains only partially funded –Coordination –Relationship with NOAA’s OSSE testbed initiative still needs to be clarified