Panarchy Dr. Green

Complex Systems Change is episodic –Slow accumulation with sudden release –Cycles on different time scales Naturally lumpy world –Patchy and discontinuous world –Nonlinear processes are operative in scales Multiple states Systems are uncertain and unpredictable

Stability Engineering resilience –Efficiency –Control –Constancy –Predictability Mechanistic systems ontology Stability near equilibrium –Resistance to disturbance

Engineering Resilience Variability of natural systems can be controlled Consequences are predictable Sustained maximum production is the goal Single objective=only one equilibrium Other states can be avoided by proper controls

Stability Ecological resilience –Adaptiveness –Variability –Unpredictability Complex systems ontology Far from equilibrium –Instabilities can flip system into another stable configuration Multiple stable states

Nature as Flat A ball balanced at the top of a hill –No stability –Random processes –Destabilizing forces are primary

Nature as Balanced A ball at the bottom of a cup –Equilibrium –Negative feedback returns to equilibrium –Static world

Nature as Resilient A ball poised between multiple hills and valleys –Discontinuous events –Nonlinear processes

Nature as Evolving Nature is a raft –Add weight, it oscillates and returns to another stable state –Too much weight under the raft, the raft sinks –Too much weight on top of raft, it will flip Loss of stability

Myths of Nature Nature is flat or anarchic –Strong stabilizing forces Nature is balanced –Strong destabilizing forces Nature as resilient –Can maintain a maladaptive state Nature as a complex adaptive system –Conserve the ability to adapt

Complex Systems Oscillation between accumulation and release of potential Oscillation between stability and instability Oscillation between vulnerability and persistencer

Complex Systems Potential available for change, gives range of options Degree of internal connectedness Resilience or vulnerability to unexpected shocks

Adaptive Cycle Exploitation Stage—rapid colonization or recently disturbed areas –Extensive dispersal abilities –Rapid growth –Scramble competition—the first to the prize wins –Entrepreneurial stage

Adaptive Cycle Conservation—slow accumulation and storage of energy and material –Slower growth –Content competition—resources divided and sequestered –bureaucracy

Adaptive Cycle Release –Overconnectedness leads to fragility –Fragility leads to rigidity and collapse Reorganization –Innovation and restructuring –Pioneer species

Adaptive Cycle Basic resources eliminated then system exists in a degraded state With sufficient carryover, the system goes through another cycle of development

Novelty Reorganization –Low connectedness and high resilience Novel combinations and low risk of systemic failure –Leakiness –Greatest uncertainty Renewal crises

r to K Exploiting opportunities in a variability environment Connectedness is low so external variability is important Winners expand and grow Relationships develop that reinforce their own expansion Emphasis on control of variability Long time period Growth and stability phase

K to Omega Structural vulnerability Connections broken Regulatory controls weakened Strong destabilizing positive feedback

Omega to Alpha Sudden increase in uncertainty Unpredictable associations Maximizes invention and reassortment