North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto North American Barometer ( Short-Term Outlook: Q Q2 2016)

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto WardsAuto 6-Month North American Outlook (Q1/Q Industry Forecasts) Sales-N.America ( Yr/Yr % Change)

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North American Industry Sales Outlook Sales finish entire 2015 at an estimated 20.7 million Volume continues upward trend through first-half First-half 2016 sales increase 5% from like Import share remains a long-time high

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North American Production Outlook Production Production Capacity Utilization Year-over-year gains slow in Q and Q in part due to slowdowns for redesigns at some plants Flat Y/Y demand for cars also putting a damper on production gains Mostly due to trucks, capacity utilization continues to get tighter.

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto U.S. Sales Outlook Initial model puts December sales at a 17.6 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, or about 1.67 million units – could go higher After tracking at 17.8 million SAAR in second-half 2015, expect first-half 2016to run at 17.6 million, with volume up 5% from January-June 2015 Units in millions

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Economic growth in general: more jobs, including more youth entering workforce Pent-up demand from the recession Low interest rates allowing longer finance contracts, increased leasing Fleet penetration up Off-lease volume  Increased incentives (though not out of hand right now)  Low fuel prices What’s Driving U.S. Demand

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto  Incentives Had a Bigger Role in the Recent Boom Market Penetration of New/Redesigned Vehicles vs. Incentive Activity Incentive data is average incentives as a percent of average transaction prices. Source. TrueCar

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto U.S. Sales Starts for New and Redesigned Vehicles Sales penetration of fresh vehicles should increase in first-half 2016

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto  Declining Fuels Prices Pumping Demand Further Falling prices at the pump added an estimated 300,000 units to the annual rate since July (17.9 million) Already rising anyway, lower fuel prices are pushing up truck penetration a little faster

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto U.S. Inventory Total inventory is well balanced with demand, and can meet another “18 million” month Small Car inventory appears to be lagging but a lot of the recent sales gains in the segment appear to be fleet and/or incentive induced CUVs continue to suck the life out of midsize cars Large Cars have fallen to less than 2% of the market A few vehicles are responsible for y/y increase in luxury cars, but share down and luxury CUVs and SUVs pulling away share CUVs inventory in line; especially the hottest part of that segment group – import luxury versions Pickup inventory levels fine – year-ago volumes were too high Small (minivans and cargo) vans and Large Vans forging ahead Nov. 30 Inventory and YTD Sales vs. Year-Ago

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Canada Sales Outlook Units in thousands 2015 will be the third straight record year for Canada – sales forecast to end at 1.9 million units Anticipating a slowdown in growth by Q2 due to some headwinds – low oil prices among them - but still historically strong volumes

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Mexico Sales Outlook Units in thousands Estimated sales in 2015 of 1.34 million units soared 18.5% from last year’s record volume Economic growth in 2016 is expected to largely mimic this year, and volume will increase again Low oil prices, corruption, among other red flags, could dampen the outlook

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales General Motors Outlook Market Share Production Capacity Utilization

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Ford Outlook Market Share

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Toyota Outlook Market Share Production

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Fiat-Chrysler Outlook Market ShareCapacity Utilization

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Honda Outlook Market Share

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Nissan Outlook Market Share

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto North America Sales Rest of Industry Outlook Market Share

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Thank You, Haig Stoddard Senior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Powerful database and reporting tools to customize your output Scenario-building tool to consider different assumptions and their effects FORECASTING TOOLS Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Global production covering 6 regions Eight-year planning window, updated monthly Medium and heavy duty truck volumes included for N.A. VEHICLE FORECAST Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Realistic picture of powertrain volumes Engine, transmission, hybrid & electric Eight-year forecast, updated monthly POWERTRAIN FORECAST Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto All current and future product plans with SOP and EOP, updated monthly By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform, Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average Lifetime Volume PRODUCT CYCLES Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

North American Barometer Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Talk with us today to learn how WardsAuto can help you Lisa Williamson m Nakia Elsaidi