Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Nowcasting Applications.

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Presentation transcript:

Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Nowcasting Applications

2 NSSL Laboratory Review February 17-19, 2009 “Nowcasting” Applications  Remotely sensed detection  0-2 hour warning / forecast  High temporal and spatial resolution Assistance for warning decision-making.

Limitations of early algorithms Entire feature reduced to a point Need to quantify uncertainty, rather than a deterministic answer Need better quality control and higher resolution data Need all meteorological information that went into algorithm decision Not easy to integrate data from multiple sensors 3

Multiple sensors 4

Blended 3D multi-radar data 5 Radars in network supplement each other: Overlapping coverage Fills in gaps from terrain blockage Increased sampling frequency

Example: Blending data from multiple sources Satellite Radar Lightning Height of -20C Isotherm 6

Examples: Multi- sensor data fields Show physical relationships between data fields from multiple sensors Storm tracks and trends can be generated at any spatial scale, for any data fields Near-surface reflectivity -20 C (~6.5 km AGL) Total Lightning Density Max Expected Size of Hail 7

Users We produce about 100 different data fields in real-time Storm Prediction Center operations (& other NCEP) 5 NWS Forecast Offices – direct feeds Google Earth layer: 12,000 unique users, 3.5M to 12M hits per month (including additional NWS users) Licensed to private industry: 46% of US TV stations Transition to NWS operations once AWIPS2 deployed 8

Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program Continued collaboration with forecasters is vital! 9

10 NSSL Laboratory Review February 17-19, 2009 Ongoing / Future research Integrating new data sources Polarimetric radar data Phased Array Radar Total Lightning (GOES-R & ground-based sensors) CONUS-scale 3D radar reanalysis at 1km / 5 min – data mining 1995 – present 0° C Z dr “ column ” Reflectivity Cross-section

Summary Science and applications to support nowcasting: Multi-sensor applications Forecaster-driven Products show physical process relationships Moving towards probabilistic hazard information Wide use across NWS and private sector 11