FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Science Highlights Bill Kuo UCAR COSMIC NCAR ESSL/MMM Division

ECMWF Operational implementation of GPSRO on Dec 12, 2006 Neutral in the troposphere, but some improvement in the stratospheric temperature scores. Obvious improvement in time series for operational ECMWF model. Dec 12, 2006 Operational implementation represented a quite conservative use of data. No measurements assimilated below 4 km, no rising occultations. Nov 6, 2007 Operational assimilation of rising and setting occultations down to surface ↑ Sean Healy, ECMWF

Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008) July 13-20, 2008

NOGP S GPS Ensembl e mean Observed Ensemble Forecasts of Tracks (initialized at 00UTC 17 July) NoGPS GPS Left turning of the Typhoon is predicted with COSMIC GPSRO data. Ensem ble mean Observ ed 45-km WRF/DART system

NOGP S GPS Ensembl e mean Observed Ensemble Forecasts of accumulated Rainfall (00UTC July) NoGPS GPS Ensem ble mean Observ ed Precipitation is enhanced with GPSRO data.

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Prediction of Sinlaku (2008) by ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System with the use of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data 10 Sep Sep Sep Sep 2008

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data during Sinlaku

An example of strong inversion layer on top of ABL Radiosonde data 23 January S, 5.70W RO observables modeled from the radiosonde data. The “step-like” structures in bending angle and refractivity PBL study by Seregey Sokolovskiy (COSMIC) and Don Lenschow (MMM)

Distribution of heights of strong inversion layers (BAL > 1E-2 rad) over North America Winter: - fewer strong inversion layers over continent, more over the ocean southwards - shallower ABL over continent - deeper ABL over the ocean than in Summer Summer: most sharp inversion layers (pronounced ABL top) over the ocean and plains; less over mountains

Ionospheric Climatology from COSMIC Data Lei, J., S. Syndergaard, A. G. Burns, S. C. Solomon, W. Wang, Z. Zeng, R. G. Roble, Q. Wu, Y.-H. Kuo, J. M. Holt, S.-R. Zhang, D. L. Hysell, F. S. Rodrigues, and C. H. Lin, Comparison of COSMIC ionospheric measurements with ground-based observations and model predictions: preliminary results, J. Geophys. Res., 112, A07308, doi: /2006JA012240, 2007.

Neutral Winds derived from COSMIC Data Luan, X., and S. C. Solomon, Meridional winds derived from COSMIC radio occultation measurements in winter, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2008.

Extremely cold tropical tropopause temperatures Locations of COSMIC soundings with cold point temps <185 K Current work is exploring the association with thin cirrus clouds observed by CALIPSO (these clouds may also incorporate nitric acid) From Bill Randel (ACD)

abc COSMIC data to calibrate AMSU on NOAA satellites

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission: Why do we need it?  Meteorology and Weather Prediction:  2,000 soundings per day is good, but not great. It is far from saturation.  Currently, less than 1% of Infrared and microwave satellite soundings are being used for weather prediction (due to cloud contamination and biases). COSMIC can significantly improve its utilization.  Significant positive impacts of COSMIC have been obtained by operational centers. They now depend on it.  COSMIC is shown to improve the prediction of typhoon genesis, track and intensity forecasts.

Data Distribution During Sinlaku (2008) 24-h12-h 6-h 3-h Most global models perform assimilation with 6-h windows, regional models with 3-h windows.

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission: Why do we need it?  Climate:  We need long data records for climate change detection and monitoring. Five year is too short for climate studies.  Climate scientists are now interested in examining data record from GPS radio occultation from 1995, but only small data records are available from GPS/MET, and there is a long gap between 1997 to 2001 with no GPS RO data.  We don’t want to develop another gap after COSMIC.  A constellation is needed to provide uniform coverage for diurnal cycle, which is important for climate study. To provide uniform diurnal coverage: CHAMP: 6 months, COSMIC: 16 days. COSMIC-II: a day?

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Follow-On Mission: Why do we need it?  Ionospheric Research and Space Weather:  COSMIC data have been shown to be valuable for evaluating both empirical and ionospheric models.  COSMIC data have shed new lights on interesting ionospheric features over the tropics (e.g., plasma caves).  The research applications of COSMIC to ionosphere is just at its beginning stage. More new results will be forthcoming in the next few years.  We need to shorten the data latency to make it more useful for space weather applications. Currently, COSMIC average latency is about 60 min. Target for COSMIC-II is about 15 min.

Thank You ! FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Workshop 1-3 October 2008, Taipei, Taiwan A Student Program funded by NSF/IOSE and NSC/NSPO