Opportunities for UCLA/JPL water-related collaborations: Western U.S. focus Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Geography University of California, Los.

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Presentation transcript:

Opportunities for UCLA/JPL water-related collaborations: Western U.S. focus Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Geography University of California, Los Angeles UCLA/JPL Workshop Feb 2, 2015

Topics  West coast U.S. drought monitor  California drought and hydrologic reconstructions  Western U.S. climate projections

1) Drought monitor

Western U.S. total (soil moisture + SWE) moisture 4/8/14, as simulated by VIC model (from University of Washington Drought Monitoring System for the West Coast)

Macroscale hydrology modeling construct

2) Hydrologic reconstructions

Methodology - Study area and period Sierra Nevada mountain range - Long-term Apr 1 SWE > 10 mm

1. How has the climate changed in California? No trend Increasing trend +0.4 o C/100 years p-value=

1. How has the climate changed in California? Decreasing trend -5.0 km 3 /100years p-value=0.07 Decreasing trend -6.2 km 3 /100years p-value=

2. How dry was California in ? Apr 1 SWE 12

3. Is there a link between climate change and drought events in California? Method 1 - Correlation analysis Correlation coefficient: 0.86 median 13

3. Is there a link between climate change and drought events in California? Method 1 - Correlation analysis Correlation coefficient: median 14

3. Is there a link between climate change and drought events in California? Method 2 – Detrended-T scenarios – In addition to the reconstructed time series (the ‘base scenario’), we removed the warming trend and simulate hydrological conditions using the VIC model (‘Detrended-T scenarios’, without climate change) – Removing long-term Tmin trend for each grid cell (Tmax does not have significant trend); preserving daily variation – Two detrended-T scenarios : Warm scenario Cold scenario 15

No trend without warming Apr 1 SWE Base scenario Cold scenario Warm scenario 16

No trend without warming Apr 1 SWE Base scenario Cold scenario Warm scenario 17

“… the combination of extreme precipitation and temperature conditions observed in 2014 in California appears to be a 200 year extreme event.” AghaKouchak et al., 2014

Drought monitor and NCDC climate division data, winters (Nov-Mar)

Winter Tmin, SWM and NCDC Climate Division

Winter Tmax, SWM and NCDC Climate Division

3) Western U.S. climate projections

Collaboration opportunities (examples)  West coast drought monitor: SWE assimilation (e.g. ASO)  Hydrologic and climate reconstructions: Regional climate modeling; attribution (e.g., drought of historical record; better understanding of warming signature  Western U.S. projections: Regional climate modeling (major computing load; need to span space of CMIP5 GCMs)