November 2011 It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact John Hattie University of Melbourne Optimism in Challenging Times Northern regional conference - Lorne

The dilemmas of democracy and school leadership. Public Perceptions of Schools

Democracy... “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that point on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship” Alexander Tytler (1834).

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school ’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

The debates about SES  the tail, &  the gap

Reading distribution

Reading distribution (N=126,424)

Victoria Reading: Up to Year 12 vs. Post Secondary parental education

AUSTRALIA’S performance over time

So to the Northern Region  There are 1574 schools in Victoria and 192 in Northern Region

Reading

Writing

Numeracy

GROWTH  But what about the growth  First – let us set some expectations  Synthesis of meta-analyses  NAPLAN across Oz 2007+

Concept of effect-sizes DecreasedEnhancedZero 0

The typical influence on achievement  900+ meta-analysis  55,000 studies, and  240+ million students

Effect on Achievement over time? Decreased Enhanced Zero 0 Typical Effect Size

Distribution of effects

Transformational Instructional Leadership…

Transformational Instructional  Set the vision, school goals, the expectations  Instructional support  Monitoring school activity  Buffering staff from external demands  Ensures that staffing is fair and equitable  Easily accessible to students and staff  Secures a high degree of autonomy for the staff  makes several formal classroom observations each year  interprets test scores with teachers  Insists teachers collaborate the teaching program across grades  insists teachers expect high proportions of their students to do well on achievement outcomes  insists and knows that class atmosphere in this school is generally very conducive to learning for all students.

Remarkable!

Naplan

Growth over time ALL =. 40 Year 3-5 =.54 Year 5-7 =.35 Year 7-9 =.26 ReadingWritingSpelling GrammarNumeracy

Average (purple) and Growth (red)

The scene is set We can expect.4 per year Or.8 over two years

Effect sizes for background

Growth comparisons  Males and female growth similar 0.05  LOTE higher than non-LOTE0.13  Indigenous growth similar 0.04  Lower parental occupation higher growth than upper 0.11

Where does WMR sit? - Mean status

Relative to SES EMRSMRNMRBSWGIPGMPLMRHMEWMR SES ranking

Relative to SES EMRSMRNMRBSWGIPGMPLMRHMEWMR SES ranking Growth

Growth effects

Be wary about status not progress Gonski Report Linking funding to outcomes Reference schools are those where at least 80 per cent of students are achieving above the national minimum standard, for their year level, in both reading and numeracy, across each of the three years 2008 to 2010 (p. 157).

A profile of NMR Growth ES% students >.80 NorthernVictoriaNorthernVictoria Reading %43% Writing %41% Numeracy %47% No. of schools with Reading, Writing, Numeracy >.80 NorthernVictoria None 24%25% One 36%35% Two 28% Three 12%

Great vs. Low Growth Schools ReadingWritingNumeracy Low Low Low Low Low ReadingWritingNumeracy High High High High High

The Low & High Growth Northern Schools

Relation to SES  It is the case that there is a positive correlation between Achievement score and SFO SFO and Achievement

 But no relation between SES and Growth Correlation

Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes

A disposition to asking … How do I know this is working? How can I compare ‘this’ with ‘that’? What is the merit and worth of this influence on learning? What is the magnitude of the effect? What evidence would convince you that you are wrong? Where is the evidence that shows this is superior to other programs? Where have you seen this practice installed so that it produces effective results? Do I share a common conception of progress? The Leader as Evaluator – Know thy impact

Expectations – Christine Rubie-Davies -- University of Auckland Low expectationHigh expectation Effects = -.03 to.20Effects =.50 to 1.44 Expect low performance, see low performance, and this reinforces their views about low performance Expect improvement, see the errors, and seek negative evidence to enact improvement Intelligence is fixedIntelligence is malleable Facilitators, constructivists, socializers Director, active change agent, academic instructor Great differences between students in classLower differences between students in class Some expected to improveAll expected to improve Differentiated activities in classLess differentiated activities in class See low effort, class behaviour, in-class relationships, try hard See confidence, motivation, persistence, and attitude to work Males - performance orientationFemales - mastery orientation More in higher decile schoolsMore in lower decile schools

The Leader Mantra 1.Decide where & what impact one wants. 2.Collaborate with all to Know thy impact 3. Ensure there are the resources to know and have impact 4.Success when thy has above average impact The Teacher Mantra Analyse, Intervene, Evaluate Levers of Change

My Mindframes I am an evaluator I am a change agent I am a seeker of feedback I use dialogue more than monologue I enjoy challenge I have high expectations for all I welcome error I promote the language or learning I am a cooperative and critical planner I use learning intentions & success criteria I aim for surface & deep outcomes I acknowledge prior achievement and attitudes I set high expectation targets I feed the gap in student learning I am an adaptive learning expert I create trusting environments I know the power of peers I use multiple strategies I know when and how to differentiate I foster deliberate practice & concentration I know I can develop confidence to succeed I am receiver of feedback I know how to use the three feedback questions I know how to use the three feedback levels I give and receive feedback I monitor and interpret my learning/ teaching

It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact