CORE Track Session Credit Market Update: Is the Thaw Real? Wednesday, March 23, 7:45 – 8:30 a.m. Sponsored by William Blair & Company and BDO
Credit Market Update: Is the Thaw Real? Moderator: Mark Cordes, Audax Group Panel: Juan E. Alva, Fifth Street Finance Tom Klimmeck, Madison Capital Partners Charles F. Riceman, Golub Capital Brian Harrer, U.S. Bank Sponsored by:
Private Equity Outlook 3 Deals and Capital Invested, US Private Equity Capital Invested ($B) $ 173 $ 307 $ 596 $ 217 $ 61 $ 145 # of Deals Source: PitchBook
Private Equity Outlook 4 Quarterly Deals and Capital Invested, 2007 – 2011 Q1 Source: PitchBook
Private Equity Outlook 5 PE Backed Companies by Vintage, Year of Investment PE-Owned Companies Source: PitchBook
Private Equity Outlook 6 PE Exits, # of US PE Exits Corporate Acquisition IPO Secondary Transaction Total Count of closedate Source: PitchBook
Private Equity Outlook 7 PE Backed Companies, Source: PitchBook
Loan Market Update 8 Middle Market Loan Volume, Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Increased volume driven by: (i) economic recovery; (ii) tax driven M&A activity; and (iii) increased liquidity Refinancings (32% share) and dividend recaps (20%) were largest use of proceeds LBO’s in ‘10 represented 16% of volume vs. 49% in ‘07 Healthcare is largest industry segment at 12% share, up from 10% in ‘07 Computer/electronics, chemicals and food/beverage were biggest share gainers in ‘10 vs. ‘07 Services/leasing, utilities, printing/publishing, and oil/gas were biggest share losers in ‘10 vs. ‘07 Market Loan Volumes – New Issues Middle Market Sponsored Volume
Loan Market Update 9 Distribution of Loan Maturities, Market Loan Volumes – New Issues Middle Market Sponsored Volume Total Additions New Deals Facility Increases Amend/Extend Subtractions Paydowns Partial Paydowns HY Take-outs Defaults Amend/Extend As of 12/31/ As of 12/17/ Significant progress was made in extending near- term loan maturities in In addition to nearly $50 billion of Amend-to-Extend (“A-to-E”) deals, issuers printed more than $114 billion of bond-for-loan takeouts, $43 billion of which repaid loans. Arrangers expect A-to-E activity to remain strong in 2011 as issuers look to address 2013 / 2014 loan maturities through IPO’s, M&A activity, cash flow or full refinancings. Loan Maturity Additions and Subtractions,
Loan Market Update 10 Middle Market Pricing, Source: Standard & Poor's 4Q10 Review and Madison Capital *MM Sponsor pricing is primary issuance, tranche weighted, and includes upfront fees amortized over three years. Source: Standard & Poor's 4Q10 Review, Fannie Mae, Bloomberg and Madison Capital Primary Spreads for B+/B Credits Vs. New Issue MM Sponsor Deals All-In Cash Coupon (B+/B credits)
Loan Market Update 11 Debt Multiples / Equity Contributions Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Average Leverage Multiples of LBO Loans Deals < $50MM in EBITDA LBO Purchase Multiples & Equity Contributions Deal < $50MM in EBITDA
Loan Market Update 12 Institutional Loan Investors Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Investor Market Share for Highly Leveraged Issuers < $50 million in EBITDA Health of the lending market improved significantly in 2010 Default rates at 60% Increasing liquidity into the mid-market is being driven by: Accelerating repayment rates Improved CLO balance sheets Improved commercial bank balance sheets Revitalization of structured products groups within banks Growing hunger for yield Optimism continues to build for both large market and mid-market CLO issuance; ~50% of CLO’s reach the end of their investment period by 2012 “Loan ratings” management remains key issue for mid-market CLO managers Loan mutual funds are biggest driver of new money into large, liquid market
Coming Up Next... ACG Core Track (Elizabeth G) 8:45 - 9:30 a.m. Capital Markets Update: From Leverage to IPO 10:00 – 11:00 a.m. The Sell Side Process: Tactics for a Changing Game 11:15 a.m. – Noon Lower Middle Market Update 2:00 – 3:00 p.m. Strategies for Add-On Acquisitions Noon – 1:45 p.m. Lunch & Keynote with General Stanley McChrystal (Ret) Sponsored by Fifth Street Capital (Elizabeth Ballroom)