TRACK B ORIGINAL QUANTIATIVE MODELING ASSUMPTIONS USE HAZUS TO EVALUATE EARTHQUAKE, HURRICANE, AND FLOOD RISKS, WITH RESPECT TO DIRECT AND INDIRECT LOSSES USE LOCAL DATA ALONG WITH THE NEMIS DATA BASE TO EVALUATE COSTS EMPHASIZE SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIESRISKS, HURRICANE VULNERABILITIES, FLOODING IN RIVERINE BASINS (PILOT STUDY), FLOOD VULNERABILITY MODELS

TRACK B MODELING IN ACCORDANCE WITH ORIGINAL ASSUMPTIONS HAZUS USED FOR EARTHQUAKE DIRECT LOSSES, HAZUS HURRICANE VULNERABILITY MODELS USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH NATIONAL WIND VELOCITY PROBABILISTIC MODELS, HAZUS ISOLATED RIVERINE BASIN MODEL SUCCESSFULLY USED IN PILOT STUDY COST DATA FOUND IN FIELD TERMS SPIN-OFFS AND ALLIED (COLLATERAL) ACTIVITIES NEWLY DEFINED TO PROVIDE CATEGORIES FOR EVALUATING SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES

ALSO DISCOVERED TO DATE TRACK B HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH A VARIETY OF UNEXPECTED MITIGATION ACTIVITIES: STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATIONS, TORNADO RISKS, DEBRIS FLOW RISKS, CHLORINE RELEASES, UNDERGROUND FLOOD RISKS TO WASTEWATER AND STORM DRAIN SYSTEMS, CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT SPILLOVER EFFECTS, AND OTHER ACTIVITIES IN WHICH LOCAL FLOOD RISKS ARE CHALLENGING TO MODEL THE NEED FOR INDIRECT LOSS ESTIMATION HAS BEEN MINIMAL

TRACK B ROLE IN THESE NEW DISCOVERIES SERVE AS A VANGUARD FOR TRACK A EVALUATIONS: 1. PRELIMINARY EVALUATIONS FOR NUMEROUS SITES IN THREE BASINS USED TO DEVELOP A COARSE DEFAULT MODEL FOR FLOOD LOSSES 2. CURRENTLY BEING IMPROVED BASED ON FLOW DATA EMBEDDED IN HAZUS 3. ATTEMPTING TO MODEL VARIOUS STRUCTURAL MITIGATIONS (E.G., DIVERSION STRUCTURES, BERMS)

TRACK B ROLE IN THESE NEW DISCOVERIES 4. HAVE IMPROVED MODELS USED IN TULSA PILOT STUDY BASED ON (A) DEGRADATION MODELS BY SIGAL ET AL.,2000 AND (B) TORNADO SIZE MODELS BY HAROLD BROOKS, 2003, NOAA/NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY. THESE ARE BEING USED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY BUT ALSO FOR TRACK A IN CONJUNCTION WITH HAZUS VULNERABILITY MODELS

TRACK B LIMITATIONS AS A RESULT OF THESE DISCOVERIES Maturity of risk evaluation tools varies enormously (examples: tornado risks, chlorine releases, structural flood mitigations, debris flows, and virtually all other discoveries) Reliability of any quantitative results will vary depending on the maturity of risk evaluation tools available

TRACK B LIMITATIONS AS A RESULT OF THESE DISCOVERIES UNCERTAINTIES FOR RISK EVALUATION PROCEDURES THAT ARE NOT MATURE ARE VERY GREAT IN ADDITION TO EVALUATING SOME KEY PARAMETERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON OUTCOMES, TRACK B WILL INDICATE THE RELATIVE MATURITY OF THE RISK EVALUATION PROCEDURES USED

SUMMARY OF TRACK B QUANTITATIVE MODELING AS PLANNED, TRACK B IS USING HAZUS MODELS WHENEVER THEY ARE MATURE TRACK B HAS DEVISED CATEGORIES FOR EVALUATING SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES A PRIMARY TASK OF TRACK B IN MANY CASES IS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY CREDIBLE MODELS THESE CAN IN SOME CASES ASSIST IN FURTHER TRACK A OBJECTIVES OF A MORE GLOBAL QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION

SUMMARY OF TRACK B QUANTITATIVE MODELING THESE INITIALLY CREDIBLE MODELS WILL HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF RELIABILITY SINCE EVEN MATURE MODELS CAN BE SUBJECTED TO MANY SENSITIVITY EVALUATIONS, AND SINCE LESS MATURE MODELS ARE SUBJECTED TO EVEN MORE SUCH MODELS, ONLY MAJOR PARAMETERS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THESE EVALUATIONS THE CREDIBILITY OF MODELS WILL BE INDICATED

TO BE ADDED TO LIST OF TYPES OF RESULTS Type of activity (process, project, spinoff) Cost Best estimate of benefit Spillover effects in estimated benefit (if any) Best estimate of b/c ratio Range of b/c ratio based on limited uncertainty evaluations Quality of tools used (some grading system to be devised or drawn from ALA, 2002, section 3.0)