Health Benefits of Improvements in Air Quality: Background and Analysis Options Prepared for Northwest Power and Conservation Council by Abt Associates Inc. August 2013

Abt Associates | pg 2 Contents  Background –Health impacts of air pollution –Steps of Health Benefits Assessment (HBA) –Applied example: Impacts of Chesapeake Bay TMDLs  Analysis options –Screening-level analysis of PM impacts –EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs –EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs and HAPs

Abt Associates | pg 3 Health Impacts of Air Pollution Source: Partially adapted from WHO 2005 Mortality Chronic illness: MI, asthma, stroke, cancer Acute illness: Respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations and ER visits Sub-clinical effects, labor productivity effects Severity Affected Population

Abt Associates | pg 4 Steps of HBA Estimated activity Emission factors for air pollutants 1. Change in Emissions Dispersion modeling Specialized software Domain definition Meteorology & air pollution sampling data 2. Reductions in Ambient Air Pollution Epidemiological relationships Baseline health data Population size 3. Improvements in Health Outcomes Unit values for health effects Direct increases in value added 4. Value of Avoided Mortality & Morbidity

Abt Associates | pg 5 Chesapeake Study Setting Analysis ElementAnalytical Choice Modeled year2025 (implementation year) Changes in emissions (NH 4 ) 1.Activity: Projected animal population in region 2.NH 4 emissions factors without BMP (baseline scenario) and with BMP (control scenario) Changes in air quality (PM 2.5 ) Ammonia is a precursor to fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) matter. S-R matrix dispersion model was used for estimation. Changes in health outcomes Followed EPA PM RIA in quantifying reductions in premature mortality and several morbidity impacts. Monetary benefitsFollowed EPA’s PM RIA in selection of unit values Chesapeake TMDLs will result in BMPs reducing ammonia emissions from livestock management

Abt Associates | pg 6 Chesapeake Results for 2025 Baseline emissions (no BMPs) : 71K tons NH 4 / year Control emissions (with BMPs): 68K tons NH 4 / year County-level improvement in air quality in 2025: Max (DC): -0.4 ug/m 3 PM 2.5 Several affected states fewer premature adult deaths 2-20 fewer MIs; 15 fewer hospitalizations; 17 fewer ER, etc. Economic value of avoiding mortality and morbidity at 3% discount rate: $161,536 - $412,746 (Thous. 2010$) Reductions in PM 2.5 Monetary benefits

Abt Associates | pg 7 RTF Woodstove Analysis Setup  One model year  Two region-specific scenarios: –Baseline: Some winter heat is generated by burning wood; –Control: No winter heat is generated by burning wood, but there is a compensating increase in electricity use  Emissions of SO x, VOC, PM 2.5, PM 10, NO x, HAPS may be affected. All options will: –Use EPA's Residential Wood Combustion Tool to estimate wood burning emissions baseline (at county- or grid-level, depending on the option). –Require development and implementation of an approach to model commensurate changes in EGU emissions

Abt Associates | pg 8 Screening-Level Analysis Impacts on PM2.5 only Air Quality S-R matrix dispersion model in EPA’s COBRA to estimate reductions in ambient PM2.5 based on county-level changes in emissions of direct PM2.5 and its precursors. County level output No uncertainty assessment EPA’s set of PM2.5 epidemiological links Health COBRA to quantify premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA PM2.5 health impact functions and internal data. County-level output No uncertainty assessment EPA’s set of values for PM2.5 endpoints Value COBRA to value premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA PM2.5 unit values and internal data. County-level output No uncertainty assessment

Abt Associates | pg 9 EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs Impacts on CAPs Air Quality CMAQ dispersion model to estimate reductions in criteria air pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM, CO, O 3, Lead) using grid-level emissions. Additional data: meteorology and emissions from all other sources of air pollution. 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid No uncertainty assessment EPA’s set of CAPs epidemiological links Health BenMAP to quantify premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA CAPs health impact functions and internal data. 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid Health impact uncertainty assessment EPA’s set of values for CAPs endpoints Value BenMAP to value premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA CAPs unit values and internal data. 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid Valuation uncertainty assessment

Abt Associates | pg 10 EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs & HAPs Impacts of CAPs and select HAPs Air Quality CMAQ dispersion model to estimate reductions in all air pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM, CO, O 3, Lead, HAPs) using grid-level emissions. Additional data: meteorology and emissions from all other sources of air pollution. 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid No uncertainty assessment EPA’s CAPs epi-links + HAPs research Health BenMAP to quantify CAPs health impacts using standard EPA functions and internal data. Additional research needed to determine if there is sufficient HAPs epidemiological data to estimate impacts 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid Health impact uncertainty assessment for CAPs, unclear if possible for HAPs EPA’s CAPs values + HAPs research Value BenMAP to value CAP health endpoints using standard EPA unit values and internal data. Additional research needed to determine if there are HAPs endpoints that can be valued 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid Valuation uncertainty assessment for CAPs, unclear if possible for HAPs

Abt Associates | pg 11 Questions and Open Discussion

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