Interim results presentation For the period ended 31 March 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

Interim results presentation For the period ended 31 March 2004

2 Features ►Headline earnings per share of 69,2 cents vs 67,6 cents ►Headline earnings of R326,9 m vs R331,6 m ► Return on equity of 27,4% vs 25,9% and return on assets of 10,5% vs 10,3% ►Interim dividend increased to 35 cents from 25 cents ►Free cash reserves of R723 m

3 ►Increased sales and improved margins lift total revenues ►Credit performance and market conditions remain positive ►Cost reduction initiatives proving successful with further benefits expected in second half ►Profit before tax up 16% from R522 million to R607 million ►R60 million STC on special dividend increases total tax charge from 37% to 47% Features

4 RoA and RoE Return on assetsReturn on equity

5 Dividends per share

6 Features Impact of changes in drivers on earnings DeteriorationImprovement Interest-bearing assets Total yield Revenue Bad debts Operating costs Net funding costs Net income before taxation Value added tax and STC Taxation Net income after taxation

7 Features DeteriorationImprovement Interest-bearing assets Total yield Revenue Bad debts Operating costs Net funding costs Net income before taxation Value added tax and STC Taxation Net income after taxation Impact of changes in drivers on earnings

8 Features Impact of changes in drivers on earnings DeteriorationImprovement Interest-bearing assets Total yield Revenue Bad debts Operating costs Net funding costs Net income before taxation Value added tax and STC Taxation Net income after taxation

9 RoE – impact of the special dividend R change Headline earnings(5) Shareholders’ capital(174) Return on equity (%)1,527,425,9

10 RoE model Margin/advances Assurance/advances Other income/advances Total yield Bad debts/advances Opex/advances Financing costs/advances Operating margin Tax rate Advances/total assets Return on assets Gearing Return on equity 6 mths ended 31 Mar 04 48,2% Bad debts/ margin 19,3% 5,5% Cost/income 33,5% 5,7% 59,5% less (9,3%) (19,9%) (6,5%) equals 23,8% less 46,8% equals 12,7% less (2,1%) equals 10,5% multiply 2,6 equals 27,4% 6 mths ended 30 Sep 03 44,7% Bad debts/ margin 19,8% 5,0% Cost/income 34,9% 5,6% 55,4% less (8,8%) (19,3%) (6,0%) equals 21,3% less 38,1% equals 13,2% less (2,4%) equals 10,8% multiply 2,4 equals 25,8% 6 mths ended 31 Mar 03 40,3% Bad debts/ margin 19,0% 4,1% Cost/income 37,4% 6,3% 50,7% less (7,7%) (19,0%) (5,9%) equals 18,3% less 36,7% equals 11,5% less (1,2%) equals 10,3% multiply 2,5 equals 25,9%

11 Segmental earnings 31 March March 2004

Advances, sales and clients

13 Advances, sales and clients Advances analysis Rm % yoy growth March 2004 % growth Sept 2003 % growth March 2003 Lending books African Bank Retail Specialised Lending Paydown books(38)1 778(18)2 178(24)2 849 African Bank Retail(39)1 559(19)1 931(24)2 556 Specialised Lending(25)219(11)247(16)293 Gross advances(6)6 272(1)6 314(5)6 662 Less: Non-interest-bearing advances 12(1 135)(20)(1 415)39(1 016) Gross interest-bearing advances (9) (13)5 646

14 Advances, sales and clients Gross interest-bearing advances

15 Advances, sales and clients Gross advances portfolio mix

16 Advances, sales and clients Sales history Rm

17 Advances, sales and clients ►Sales for six months increased by 34% to R2 197 m ►African Bank Retail (up 35%) ►32% increase in number of loans ►2% increase in loan size ►Specialised Lending (up 32%) ►4% decrease in number of loans ►38% increase in loan size ► new loans advanced Clients

18 Advances, sales and clients ►Stage 1 – 3 rd quarter 2003 differential between highest and lowest interest rate increased by further 9% to 27% ►Stage 2 – 3 rd quarter 2004 new scoring models incorporating behavioural, operational and individual risk information and a new set of products Price differentiation

Underwriting margin and costs

20 Underwriting margin and costs Operating margin analysis % average gross interest-bearing advances Total yield After tax operating margins Charge for bad debts Operating expenses Net financing costs Tax charges

21 Underwriting margin and costs Cost-to-income ratio

Asset quality – NPLs and provisions

23 Asset quality – NPLs and provisions Advances and provisions analysis R millionsH1-04 % changeH2-03 % changeH1-03 Advances Performing (5)3 882 Non-performing2 419(8)2 625(6)2 780 Total6 272(1)6 314(5)6 662 Ratios NPLs as a % of total advances 38,6 41,6 41,7 Total provisions as % of NPLs (NPL cover) 74,474,778,8 Bad debt write-offs as % of average gross advances 13,714,212,2

24 Asset quality – NPLs and provisions Bad debt charge % March 2004 Sept 2003 March 2003 Interest yield48,244,740,3 Bad debt charge9,38,87,7 Bad debt/margin19,319,819,0

25 Asset quality – NPLs and provisions Advances and provisions analysis 31 March 2004 Gross advancesNPLsTotal provisions Provision coverage Rm % of gross advancesRm % of gross advances% Lending books ,585619,177,7 African Bank Retail ,473820,574,8 Specialised Lending ,811813,1102,6 Paydown books ,194453,171,6 African Bank Retail ,878950,669,5 Discontinued businesses ,615470,484,2 Total , ,774,4

26 Asset quality – NPLs and provisions Vintage chart for African Bank Retail Non-performing loans as % of original principal debt VINTAGE GRAPH – African Bank Retail More than two instalments missed Months on book

27 ►AC133: NPLs are valued at the present value of future cash flows Rm Non-performing loans Less provisions (1 800) Residual NPLs (NAV) 620 ►R162,3 million collected in African Bank Retail in last 6 months ►annualised 52,3% of residual NPLs (nominal) or ►average 30 months to collect residual NPLs (NPV) Asset quality – NPLs and provisions Collections

Capital, cash flow and funding

29 Capital, cash flow and funding Capital adequacy CA-Ratings credit rating affirmed May 2004: A– (long-term) A1 (short-term) Sept 2002March 2003Sept 2003March 2004

30 Capital, cash flow and funding Capital adequacy model * Three times average bad debt charge Balance sheet R millionCapital % Required capital R million Non-performing loans2 419 Less: Provisions(1 800) Net book value620100,0620 Performing loans ,2*1 046 Cash reserves1 2214,049 Goodwill17100,017 Other assets40820,082 Off-balance sheet assets12620,025 Insurance Company CAR103 Total assets6 244 Group risk weighted assets , Actual capital36, Surplus capital6,9450

31 Capital, cash flow and funding Maturity profile of assets and liabilities Free cash reserves of R723 million

32 Capital, cash flow and funding Cash flow analysis Rm 6 months to 31 March months to 30 September months to 31 March 2003 Cash generated from operations (Increase)/decrease in gross advances (391)(105)82 Other(271)(236)(575) Increase in cash from business activities Shareholder payments(729)(219)(84) (Decrease)/increase in total cash(456) Cash at the beginning of the period Cash at the end of the period Made up as follows: Short-term deposits and cash Bank overdraft(2)(4) Statutory cash reserves – Insurance

33 Regulatory changes ►Usury Act and Credit Agreements Act to be replaced ►Independent regulatory body to be established ►Consumer protection to be improved ►Improve disclosure of cost of credit ►Prohibit undesirable credit terms and practices ►Regulate the behaviour of intermediaries ►Consumer education to be improved ►Complaints resolution and debt counselling framework to be implemented ►Provisions on reckless lending to be introduced ►Credit bureau activity to be regulated ►Weaknesses in regulation of debt collection to be addressed Credit law review – summary of proposed framework

34 Looking ahead ►Sales growth to outpace the decline in the paydown books ►Gross margins to increase moderately based on changes to portfolio mix ►Bad debt charges steady at current levels ►Operating costs to benefit from initiatives implemented ►Continued focus on optimal capital levels The outlook for both RoA and RoE remain positive.

Thank you