DECISION MAKING

Sources of Errors in Decision Making Representativeness – when there is not sufficient data before generalizing Representativeness – when there is not sufficient data before generalizing Availability – when you seize the obvious Availability – when you seize the obvious Anchoring – when you do not push beyond initial thoughts and alternatives Anchoring – when you do not push beyond initial thoughts and alternatives

Improved decision making requires: Reflection Reflection Use of a system Use of a system

Biggest mistakes in decision making are… “Either / Or” thinking “Either / Or” thinking The notion of clear and simple goals for an organization is ….. a gross oversimplification. The notion of clear and simple goals for an organization is ….. a gross oversimplification. Seeking satisfactory rather than maximum capacity. Seeking satisfactory rather than maximum capacity. Maximizing > attend all classes & be on time Maximizing > attend all classes & be on time Satisfying > some absences with valid reasons Satisfying > some absences with valid reasons

Some Decision Making Models Rush to judgment Rush to judgment Quick fix Quick fix Muddling and Scanning Muddling and Scanning Fire, ready, aim – back to the drawing board Fire, ready, aim – back to the drawing board Political Political Self-interest Self-interest All about power All about power Strategic decision making Strategic decision making Reference Hoy and Tarter 2004 Reference Hoy and Tarter 2004

Hanson’s Case Analysis Framework Step 1 – Summarize the case Step 1 – Summarize the case Step 2 – State the Problem Step 2 – State the Problem Step 3 – List people, place, program Step 3 – List people, place, program Step 4 – Review, prioritize, locate significant data Step 4 – Review, prioritize, locate significant data Step 5 – Refer to the Data in Solving the Problem Step 5 – Refer to the Data in Solving the Problem

THINKING HATS Blue hat – the organizing one / organize the thinking process / cool and clear / organizes the other hats Blue hat – the organizing one / organize the thinking process / cool and clear / organizes the other hats White hat – neutral and objective / concerned with facts and figures White hat – neutral and objective / concerned with facts and figures Red hat – emotional / processes feelings and intuitions / usually what makes us angry Red hat – emotional / processes feelings and intuitions / usually what makes us angry

THINKING HATS… Black hat – caution / careful / survival Black hat – caution / careful / survival Yellow hat – sunny and positive / optimistic with hope and positive thinking Yellow hat – sunny and positive / optimistic with hope and positive thinking Green hat – abundant and fertile growth of ideas / creativity and new ideas Green hat – abundant and fertile growth of ideas / creativity and new ideas Always refer to the hat color, not the function Always refer to the hat color, not the function Hat Pairs: Hat Pairs: Red and White Red and White Black and Yellow Black and Yellow Green and Blue Green and Blue

Guidelines for Thinking Hats… Six volunteers Six volunteers Each person wears a different hat in order to process the “problem.” Each person wears a different hat in order to process the “problem.” Blue hat thinking is primarily the facilitator, helping others to stay “in hat.” Blue hat thinking is primarily the facilitator, helping others to stay “in hat.” Other five hats must present only the perspective represented by that hat. Other five hats must present only the perspective represented by that hat.