Global Wood Industry Demand, Supply, Issues Phill Guay

Global Impacts Effects Less dramatic Longer term Larger Response Day to day – Run locally Investments – View globally Sales Consider offshore

Demand Drivers China Bio energy Carbon sequestering Alternatives

US Supply

Drivers Costs – Currency – Tariffs & Duties – Taxes – Transportation – Political

China Status Largest importer Globally flexible Largest exporter – Furniture – Flooring – Plywood Round Wood Imports

China Sources Million m3 Logs Russia PNG Malaysia Other Total Sawn wood Russia USA01.6 Canada01.0 Other Total8.19.8

Russian Supply Log Duty 2006 – 6.5% 2007 – 20% 2008 – 25% 2009 – 20 % – 80% ??? Issues Duty Value added Legal logging Foreign capital

Global Plantations Millions of Hectares

Plantations China Share

Other Issues Legal logging Lacey Act EU initiatives Drivers Who is questioned Response Bio Energy Carbon Sequestering

Summary Canada has options – US – China – Japan – Korea Legal logging – Drives up stumpage Bio energy – Drives up pulp /small diameter China Remains largest – Import – Exporter More self sufficient Industry growth subsides Russia Great unknown

Conclusions Pricing Recovers Supply Moves globally Shifts to plantations Survivors Diversity sources Diversify outlets