1 April 27-28, 2011 Southeast Tornado Outbreak April 27-28, 2011 ~190 tornadoes, ~311 fatalities Deadliest outbreak since March 21, 1932 Outlook issued 5 days prior; Moderate Risk issued 3 days in advance; High Risk issued 16 hours in advance Coordination calls initiated w/FEMA and state emergency managers 3 days in advance POD 96% for tornadoes occurring in SPC watches Average warning lead time 24 min 10AM – 11PM CDT April 27,

April 27-28, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Day 4-8 Day 4 – 12Z April Z April 28, 2011 Day 5 – 12Z April Z April 28, 2011

3 Probabilistic Day 3 Categorical Probabilistic April 27-28, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Day 2

4 Categorical Day 1 High Winds April 27-28, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Hail Tornado

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Year-to-Date Tornado Statistics NWS’s preliminary estimates show approximately 1,653 tornadoes so far this year. – The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817. – The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274. The preliminary estimated number of tornado fatalities so far this year is 537, including 151 fatalities from the Joplin tornado. – 2011 is preliminarily the 6 th deadliest tornado year in U.S. history. 6

A large portion of Joplin Missouri was devastated by an EF-5 (greater than 200 mph) tornado Over 150 fatalities and over 1000 injured Joplin tornado is deadliest since modern recordkeeping began in 1950 Ranked 7 th among the deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history. Storm Prediction Center highlighted southwest MO for the potential for severe weather three days prior to the day of the storm. Tornado watch issued 4 hours in advance Springfield, MO WFO issued a tornado warning with a lead time of 24 minutes Joplin EF-5 Tornado – May 22,

On June 1, 2011, a supercell thunderstorm developed over western Massachusetts. Produced an EF3 (160 MPH) tornado that cut a 39- mile (63-kilometer) track of destruction across southwest and south-central Massachusetts. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued severe weather outlook 5 days in advance.This area was maintained in the days leading up to the event. Tornado Watch issued 3 hours prior to the Springfield event. A Tornado Warning was in effect for the city of Springfield and surrounding area at the time of the storm. Springfield, MA Tornado 8

9 April 14, 2012 OK/KS Tornado Outbreak 9 Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2 nd time) 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK No other fatalities Large tornadoes near Wichita, El Dorado & Salina KS Preliminary NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 20.1 minutes.

10 Day 7 – Issued April 8 Day 6 – Issued April 9 Day 5 – Issued April 10 Day 4 – Issued April 11 Valid Sat, April 14 – Sun, April 15, 2012

11 Day 3 – Issued April 12 Day 2 – Issued April 13 Day 1 – Issued April 14

12 Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation Workshop held in Norman, OK, December 2011 Focus on the “last mile”: delivery of warnings Assess and update warning dissemination strategy Integrate social and physical science –Is the message delivered equal to the message received –Impact-based Forecast and Warnings Improved outreach and education 12

14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) Preliminary NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 20.1 minutes 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time) FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 5 days before the event 13

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14 April Great Plains Outbreak “Anyone tuned into a television or weather service last week would have been hard pressed to miss the news that dangerous storms were brewing in the Midwest. Clearly, these storms were meant to be taken seriously.” -- Kansas City Star “The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which specializes in tornado forecasting, took the unusual step of issuing a stern warning about the oncoming storms more than 24 hours in advance.” -- Christian Science Monitor “I really think people took the warnings and they took them very seriously. We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours’ notice. Well, this one had almost two days’ notice.” -- Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback “We'd been on the lookout for it for three days. We were as ready as we could have been.” -- Larry Hill, Thurman, IA (AP) resident whose home was destroyed