Weather Related Data Products for Emergency Management Practitioners Christina McCullough Indiana National Guard

Disclaimer I am not a soldier. I am a contractor working at the Indiana National Guard in the Joint Operations Center. I do not work for NWS, NOAA or USGS. I use their data. These data make my job easier. I am not a meteorologist. I am a Geographer; Geographic Information Science and Remote Sensing Technologies. I focus my work on how we can deliver scientific data into a common operating picture for Emergency Management Practitioners.

Indiana FEMA Declarations Since 1954 –47 FEMA Declarations 40 Major Disaster Declarations 7 Emergency Declarations –31 (66%) Flood Events

June 2008 Floods June 7-9, 2008 ~2-10 inches rainfall 21 Flash Flood Warnings 3 Fatalities 65 Miles of Impassible Roads

The Presumed Result Landsat 5 & 7 –Purdue University Vegetation Index Mississippi State symbology Road Closures –62 miles Geocoded RC26 Images Great Product Not good enough Not proactive Communication Failure

The Request “I need for you to tell me where and how much water will result from the rains. And, where will we have flooding conditions in the next 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours?”

NWS AHPS River Gauges River Forecasts –48 Hours –2872 Total Gauges –Downloadable data SHP KML/KMZ RSS Does not forecast out 72 & 96 hours

Communication Failure "Adapted from Pacific Disaster Center;

Northern Indiana – Precip – None – Rivers – Kankakee, Maumee, Wabash, Tippecanoe – Gauges All indicate receding levels Central Indiana –Gauges All indicate receding levels Southern Indiana –No significant threat at this time Example 1, State Wide Threats

Example 2, Tippecanoe Tippecanoe to Wabash River –Oakdale Dam, moderate to major

The Project Begins National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) consists of gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements Decision makers requested NDFD graphical data to coexist with our local data.

NDFD Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Is the total expected liquid precipitation. A QPF will be specified when a measurable (<0.01”) precipitation type is forecast for any hour during a QPF valid period. Data Availability –72 hours, every 6 hours –DEGRIB => 74 hours Values > 0 inches

DEGRIB TOOL

The QPF Model (Snow also, (48HRS))

Validating the Model A B

Individual Selected Polygons

QPF 72HR FINAL

Why NDFD DeGRIB? Allows for additional interpretation Small polygons –Better math process Fast data upload Model works very quickly for smaller regions Not recommended for nationwide analysis. Model not fully automated

In Addition… Single NDFD layers can be used Hazards Element

Support to the Geospatial Community APPENDIX A Graphical Forecast Weather Element Survey APPENDIX B Support to Geospatial Intelligence Community – DeGRIB to ArcProducts APPENDIX C Support to Geospatial Intelligence Community – NDFD Model

So what …. BLUF …Ongoing Putting it all together for a weather threat analysis NWS AHPS Observed Precipitation –.shp, Point data, NWS AHPS Observed / Forecast Gauges –.shp, Point data NWS Weather Warnings –IMS, Polygon USGS Water Watch –.kml,.shp, IMS point data NOHRSC Snow Water Equivalent –.kmz, raster grid NDFD Probability of Precipitation –.shp, polygon, DeGRIB NDFD QPF –shp, polygon, DeGRIB NDFD Wind Speed –shp, polygon, DeGRIB NDFD Snow –shp, polygon, DeGRIB NDFD Apparent Temp Heat Index and Wind Chill –shp, polygon, DeGRIB NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Wind Tornado and Hail –csv, point

Thank You Christina McCullough Indiana National Guard