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Culture, Rationality, and Risk Perception: the Tragedy of the Science-Communication Commons

1.Two hypotheses 2.Data 3.Tragedy of the risk perception commons 4.Two-channel communication strategy The science communication problem...

Two Hypotheses 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) “science illiteracy” “bounded rationality”

The science communication problem... 1.Two hypotheses 2.Data 3.Tragedy of the risk perception commons 4.Two-channel communication strategy

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. PIT prediction Scilit/num Scale low high Actual variance Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Two Hypotheses 1.Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT) 2.Cultural cognition thesis (CCT) “science illiteracy” “bounded rationality”

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Abortion procedure Mary Douglas’s Group-grid worldview scheme compulsory psychiatric treatment Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Cultural Variance Hierarchical Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy?

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Hierarchical Individualist U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

The science communication problem... 1.Two hypotheses 2.Data 3.Tragedy of the risk perception commons 4.Two-channel communication strategy

1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, (2010) Kahan, D.M., Wittlin, M, Peters, E., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman D. & Mandel, G. The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons, CCP Working Paper No. 89 (June 24, 2011))

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

1.Culturally motivated search & assimilation 2.Cultural source credibility effect 3.Cultural availability effect 4.Culturally motivated system(atic) 2 reasoning Mechanisms of cultural cognition Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Slovic, P., Gastil, J. & Cohen, G. Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology. Nature Nanotechnology 4, (2009) Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011) Kahan, D.M., Braman, D., Cohen, G.L., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study of the Evidence (mechanisms). L. & Human Behavior 34, (2010) Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change, advance on line publication, doi: /nclimate1547 (2012).

1.Two hypotheses 2.Data 3.Tragedy of the risk perception commons 4.Two-channel communication strategy The science communication problem... Kahan D.M., Jenkins-Smith, J., Taranotola, T., Silva C., & Braman, D., Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: a Cross-cultural Study, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012).

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Climate change Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism Climate change Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Control Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Anti-pollution Condition

Geoengineering Condition

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

Anti-pollution Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Geoengineering Condition

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution

1.Two hypotheses 2.Data 3.Tragedy of the risk perception commons 4.Two-channel communication strategy The science communication problem... Kahan D.M., Jenkins-Smith, J., Tarantola, T., Silva C., & Braman, D., Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: a Cross-cultural Study, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012).

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to