Rex H. Caffey Director and Associate Professor Center for Natural Resource Economics & Policy Louisiana State University AgCenter Louisiana Sea Grant College.

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Presentation transcript:

Rex H. Caffey Director and Associate Professor Center for Natural Resource Economics & Policy Louisiana State University AgCenter Louisiana Sea Grant College Program Restore America’s Estuaries December 12, 2006, New Orleans, LA What Benefits Are We Really After? Examining Cost Efficacy and Project Selection in CWPPRA

Objectives Economics at the Ecosystem Scale LA Case Study: Grappling with benefits

A mandate for “economic efficiency” in rationale of most large scale programs. No blank checks Economics – allocation of scarce resources amongst competing interests. Economics and Large Scale Restoration Economics is more than just project justification. Not just “At Risk” accounting

2050 ? 1956 How should we allocate our limited restoration dollars?

Case Study Economics in CWPPRA ( )

cost-effectiveness “...coastal wetland restoration projects in Louisiana (will) provide for the long- term conservation of such wetlands... based on the cost-effectiveness of such projects in creating, restoring, protecting, or enhancing coastal wetlands...” (Public Law 646: CWPPRA, Sec (b)). Efficiency Mandate

155 Authorized projects, 109 Active projects. Stage 1: What determines costs? Quantify the effect of specific factors that determine cost-efficiency of “Active” Projects. Cost Function: Average Annual Habitat Units $/AAHU = f {size, location, tech, sponsor, policy, time } Descriptive Statistics Multiple Linear Regression Model

Cost-Efficacy for Active Projects (n=109)

Average Costs: Sponsors

Region 2 Average Costs: Regions

Vegetative Planting (2%) $900 per AAHU

$1,736 per AAHU Hydrologic Restoration (27%)

Freshwater Diversion (9%) $2,341 per AAHU

Sediment & Nutrient Trapping (5%) $2,839 per AAHU

Outfall Management (3%) $3,602 per AAHU

Sediment Diversion (6%) $4,077 per AAHU

Marsh Creation (10%) $4,698 per AAHU

Shoreline Protection (27%) $9,461 per AAHU

Barrier Island Restoration (10%) $10,416 per AAHU

Shoreline Protection A Closer Look at Expensive Project Types: Barrier Island CNREP 2006

How are total cost changing? CNREP 2006

What’s happening to benefits? CNREP 2006

And consequently...Costs per unit? CNREP 2006

Stage 2: Role of Cost-Efficiency and other factors in project selection of Candidate Projects. Stage 2: Project selection factors? Candidate Selection Model: Selection = f {FFC, CE, Criticality, Size, Type, population) Binary Logit Model ~ 350 “Nominated” projects, 299 Candidate Projects. Results: Years 1-5, Costs negatively correlated with selection Years 6-10, Costs negatively correlated with selection Years Costs positively correlated with selection

Transparency and validity of benefit calculation - How is “Bang” being calculated? - Communicate the science behind decisions Meaningful participation in prioritization process - Project origin: Bottom up vs. Top Down? - Seat at the table from the beginning Project trajectory becoming a major issue - How long will it take to get the benefits? - Strong public support for rapid-land building Public Concerns

Observations and Lessons Learned Economics & Coastal Restoration We can do better than “at risk” accounting Cost-efficacy an effective metric for project selection and re-assessment, adaptive management If you don’t like the answers you get, don’t blame economics – costs are not the problem, benefits are!

Thank You