Dr Mark Cresswell Scenarios of the Future 69EG6517 – Impacts & Models of Climate Change

Sources of information “But why? Why do we say the Earth is flat, when the vast majority says otherwise? Because we know the truth.”

Sources of information Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change………..

Sources of information Royal Meteorological Society

IPCC Key Findings “Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 8)

IPCC Key Findings “A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 9)

IPCC Key Findings “More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 11)

IPCC Key Findings IPCC: Climate Change Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 16)

IPCC Key Findings “Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 17) “Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century”

IPCC Key Findings IPCC: Climate Change Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 18)

IPCC Vulnerability Findings “Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.” “Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 19) “Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.” “Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.”

IPCC Vulnerability Findings “Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways” “Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways” IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 20) “A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.” “A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.”

IPCC Temperature Scenarios IPCC: Climate Change 2007 Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 32)

IPCC Temperature Scenarios IPCC: Climate Change Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 34)

Future Vulnerability Thresholds IPCC: Climate Change Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 143)

Adaptation-Mitigation-Impacts IPCC: Climate Change Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 748)

Economic Development “Climate change poses a real threat to the developing world. Unchecked it will become a major obstacle to continued poverty reduction” The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate change (page 104) “Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change because of their geographic exposure, low incomes and greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture”

Economic Development The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate change (page 104) “Severe deterioration in the local climate could lead, in some parts of the developing world, to mass migration and conflict, especially as another 2-3 billion people are added to the developing world’s population in the next few decades”

Economic Development The Stern Review (2007) The economics of climate change (page 105) “Little can now be done to change the likely adverse effects that some developing countries will face in the next few decades, and so some adaptation will be essential. Strong and early mitigation is the only way to avoid some of the more severe impacts that could occur in the second half of this century”