Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Regional climate modelling Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Outline Motivation Philosophy Validation (components and budgets) Future climate Conclusions and Perspectives

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Motivation to understand, model and predict: regional climate and its changes with a high degree of detail the variability and changes in the hydrological cycle on basin scales the development and changes of extreme/rare events influencing local and regional life

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob T42 1/2° ~ 2.5° ~ 50 km or 250 km The Baltic Sea at different horizontal resolutions T42 1/6° ~ 1° ~ 18 km or 100 km

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Philosophy Consistency global to regional Comparison of different physical schemes Validation in different climates Validation of single components as well as budgets coupled systems to describe the entire cycles (eg. water, energy, carbon) Future climate scenarios - ensemble

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob REMO domains

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Validation Precipitation in the Elbe river basin Precipitation intensity in the Elbe river basin Total run-off and snow pack in the Baltic Sea catchment Precipitation in the Alps

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Baltic catchment Rhein / Elbe / Oder - catchments

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Reference: Hagemann, S., B. Machenhauer, O.B. Christensen, M. Deque, D. Jacob, R. Jones and P.L. Vidale, 2002: Intercomparison of water and energy budgets simulated by regional climate models applied over Europe MPI Report No. 338, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Total annual Precipitation REMO 1/2 ° ( ) REMO 1/6 ° ( ) Observations ( )

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Indonesia

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Precipitation (mm/day) for

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob REMO Orography [m] Arctic model domain 145 * 121 grid points

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Water budget of the Arctic atmosphere north of 70 N [mm/month] Year Winter Summer REMOSerreze et al.

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Water Balance Baltic Catchment (8 year) mean values in [km 3 ]

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Coupled regional systems BALTIMOS – Baltic Sea Integrated Model System REMO and hydrological models (HD, LARSIM, HBV) REMO and ocean models (BSIOM, HOPE-C, HAMSOM)

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Coupled regional modelling system

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Projects within BALTIMOS

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Future climate Precipitation changes: SRES B2 for 2020 to 2050 Changes in the precipitation intensity distribution in the Elbe river basin ensembles

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob SRES B Precipitation [mm/year] and its Changes [%] for 3 decades (REMO 1/6°) Change Change Change

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Ensemble with REMO (2020 to 2026) Annual cycle for 2021 

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Conclusions and Perspectives Satisfying results with REMO compared to observations in different climatic zones 0.16° horizontal resolution adequate for regional and local climate studies Water cycles changes can be addressed on basin scales with coupled model systems First 30 year long scenario on 0.16° resolution delivers high amount of details in changes of means and extremes Ensemble are needed to define uncertainty ranges

Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Thank you!