October 28, 2015 David Dodson President, MDC Building an Infrastructure of Opportunity in North Carolina

The American Dream How many of you believe that where a person starts in life shouldn’t determine where they end up?

Complex Landscape, Common Challenge Lack of Mobility: The South stands out Source: Equality of Opportunity Project data

At the root of the uncertainty lies a pervasive doubt: whether the nation can sustain the American Dream of each generation moving up and doing better than previous generations.

Today we will consider: What are the current patterns of economic mobility in North Carolina, and what levers can provide economic uplift broadly? Who in this region is stuck with limited economic opportunity, and who is on the path to success? How can young people growing up in this region access opportunity and participate in future prosperity?

Stuck in Place Annual growth rate of real income across the family income distribution, national Source: Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers

Upward Mobility “Inequality would not be a problem if upward mobility were strong in America.” --Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor

Growth and Low Mobility The paradox of the metro South, 100 Largest Metros Sources: Forbes, Equality of Opportunity Project, Trulia, Brookings, and U.S. Census Bureau Forbes Best for Business Mobility Poverty Rate Increase in Poverty Since 2000 Raleigh, NC %96.8% Nashville, TN %66.7% Charlotte, NC %97.4% Dallas, TX %64.4% Atlanta, GA %89.9%

Economic Mobility in N.C. What are the chances a child raised in the lowest fifth of the income distribution will rise to the top fifth as an adult in each North Carolina commuting zone? Commuting Zone Chance of Rising Rank out of 729 Zones (#1 is worst) Fayetteville3.8%36 Charlotte4.4%53 Winston- Salem 4.5%58 Raleigh5.0%85 Asheville6.3%159 The best mobility in large US commuting zones? In San Jose, CA, a young person has a 12.9 percent chance of rising from the lowest to the highest quintile. The worst mobility in large US commuting zones? In Memphis, TN, a young person has a 2.8 percent chance of rising from the lowest to the highest quintile. Source: Equality of Opportunity Project

Economic Mobility in the Triangle What are the chances a child raised in a given quintile of the income distribution will move to another quintile as an adult in the Triangle? Source: Equality of Opportunity Project

Median Household Income by Race and Ethnicity Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-Year Averages

Income Mobility, by Education Chances of moving up or down the family income ladder Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts

Based in part on a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation model Preparation Obtain secondary skills and motivation for postsecondary success Connection Understand application process and financial aid Entry Enroll, obtain financial aid, pass assessments, and complete orientation Progress Complete courses and accumulate credits Completion Complete course of study and attain credential Employment Obtain a living wage job with opportunities for career advancement Preventing Loss, Creating Momentum A systems view

Barriers to Belonging Race and the concentration of poverty in schools, 2013 Source: Urban Institute and Southern Education Foundation Note: high-poverty schools are schools where more than 75 percent of students come from low- income families. Low-income students are ones who are eligible for free-or reduced-price lunch. Share of public school students from low- income families Share of low-income students in high- poverty schools Share of non-low- income students in high- poverty schools Share of black students in high- poverty schools Share of white students in high-poverty schools Mecklenburg54% 9%49%6% Wake34%11%1%9%1% Guilford57%49%9%46%9% Forsyth54%40%4%36%4% Cumberland58%27%8%27%9% Durham61%42%9%36%6% Buncombe54%6%1%8%2% Gaston57%31%7%38%13% New Hanover46%27%4%35%6% Union34%31%2%32%2%

Barriers to Belonging Overall economic segregation index Source: Martin Prosperity Institute

Barriers to Belonging Percentage of the population under the poverty line living in high-poverty neighborhoods Source: The Century Foundation using U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data

Clustering and Fragmenting Bill Bishop’s The Big Sort: We’re increasingly living in “balkanised communities whose inhabitants find other Americans to be culturally incomprehensible.” Bonding, bridging, and linking social capital Amb. James Joseph: Smaller communities of “meaning and memory” Experiential and economic clustering/isolation

Upward Mobility What is your family’s mobility story? What is the role of education, opportunity, and place in that story?

The Path to Possibility Prospects for young people are widely variable, depending on the circumstances of their birth, the inclusiveness of their communities, the dynamism of the economies in which they function, and the quality of the education and workforce systems that serve them. How do we make sure all of these factors are consistent in the lives of young people so that those who start at the bottom of the income ladder can rise and thrive?

Based in part on a Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation model Preparation Obtain secondary skills and motivation for postsecondary success Connection Understand application process and financial aid Entry Enroll, obtain financial aid, pass assessments, and complete orientation Progress Complete courses and accumulate credits Completion Complete course of study and attain credential Employment Obtain a living wage job with opportunities for career advancement Transportation Career & Academic Counseling Living Wage Employment Policies Work Supports Cultural Messages & Media Representations Preventing Loss, Creating Momentum Community systems context Institutional & Public Policies Housing

It is the systems and supports needed to boost young people to higher rungs on the ladder of economic and personal advancement. It includes employers, education systems, community-based organizations, policy makers, civic and neighborhood leaders, philanthropy, and young people themselves It engages them all to foster a common strategic vision of aims and outcomes for education and training systems What is the Infrastructure of Opportunity?

It takes advantage of local assets and addresses the community’s distinctive challenges It should be as pervasive and reliable as the physical infrastructure of roads and water lines What is the Infrastructure of Opportunity?

Complex Landscape, Common Challenge Lack of mobility: The South stands out Source: Equality of Opportunity Project data

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