November 2, 2005San Diego, California1 Calculation Tool for Estimating Projected Emissions - Methods Roll Out – (Day 2 – ) Phase III/IV Project Technical Workshop #2 November 1-2, 2005 – San Diego, CA

November 2, 2005San Diego, California2 Purpose Software application that generates an event-level prescribed burning emission inventory given estimates of future levels of burning and applies ERTs. The calculation tool will be designed for use by experts in fire and smoke management. Goal of this contract is to develop a prototype version.

November 2, 2005San Diego, California3 Main Features Input projected acres of prescribed burning by state. Characterize the application rate and percent reduction of ERTs. Create a database of fire events with fuel consumption, emissions, location and date suitable for dispersion modeling. The statistics generating the event attributes (not activity levels) are calibrated to the QC’ed WRAP Phase II emission inventory.

November 2, 2005San Diego, California4 Current Status The Calc Tool is an Excel 2003 workbook: –WRAP Phase II Prescribed Fire events pre-loaded. –Targets as acres per state typed into a “control sheet.” –Formulas and macro to add/remove events to meet target acres. –Query to export final DBF of new events. Currently implemented for generating Baseline emission inventories from Phase II events. Adapted version will scale Baseline to Projections. ERT module is under development and will “plug in” to current Calc Tool. All Baseline fire EIs were created using the Calc Tool in house at Air Sciences. No demo today because the interface is rough, better to get weigh in on methods.

November 2, 2005San Diego, California5 Scaling Logic Control Sheet Enter scalars for Less, Likely, and More scenarios. Generate New Events Calc tool selects events until scalars are met (in acres). If exhaust number of Baseline events per state and agency (scalar >1), then start pulling again from top of list Baseline EI Events sorted randomly, grouped by state and agency Repeated events: Given new date in same month. Location assumed to vary within model grid cell. * Projection EI Events with baseline stats and summing to projection activity * This is a deliberate coarse scale assumption in line with a state-level tool. Events effectively move (in time and location) and we don’t risk putting them too far from where they should be.

November 2, 2005San Diego, California6 ERT Logic ERT Input Enter ERT reduction factors, application rates, and scenario weights Apply ERTs For each projection scenario, calc tool applies ERTs to emissions already attached to events coming from the Baseline EI. Performed on anthropogenic/ controllable events only. Rx Projection EI Rx events with baseline stats and summing to projection activity ERT Applied Projection EI Events with baseline stats, summing to projection activity acres, and credited for ERTs

November 2, 2005San Diego, California7 1- User enters scalars 2- Tool calculates number of new events/acres needed 3- Events are “looked up” from randomized Source sheet into New Events sheet

November 2, 2005San Diego, California8 Using Historic Data Resulting EIs consist of modified historic Phase II events –Benefits Realistic day-to-day events… mimic historic variability in events even for a planning inventory with new activity levels. Same overall seasonality, fuel types, locations, etc. preserves realistic annual profile… scenarios are only changing what we want to change. Important to “control” for this in planning EIs. –Potential Limits Requires a historic event database and currently based on WRAP 2002 Phase II. Repeating events risks “data inbreeding” for states going from low activity to very high activity. (However, this was solved for in the case of Baseline WFU by cloning wildfire events.)