m2M Conference Call February 13, 2013 John surface temp estimate update Ian update on progress with distillation of garden array into pixel value Lynn update on seedling survival/recruitment data NASA letter of intent/ecological forecasting (Frank, Lorrie, Alan…)

Landsat 8!

The following figures show the percentage of seedlings alive at the end of the season out of the seeds that were planted versus growing degree days at a given garden (5C threshold). These are not corrected for germination rate. Apologies that this is a quick excel graph just to show this group (curves fit to equations in excel too), with many data points on them (all species on one graph), and this should be considered preliminary. I have several “censuses” at each site, so I can tease apart which seedlings were alive when. Seeds->emerged seeds->survivors. I will try various independent variables and see which fit best for which species (GDD, GDH, +5C, +10C, etc.) – Lynn

Recruitment

Next steps: plant data First graphic: GDD vs recruitment (survival to end of season): – Correct for % germination (i.e. how many could we have possibly seen) – Growing degree days may be more relevant to survival than emergence, and relevant period may differ among species (e.g. pines later, oaks earlier, Teakettle has snow until June…) – Try various degree-day calculations, and thresholds, but only for survivorship, not emergence Second graphic: Survival curves: – % first detected; % survived to second census; % survived to final census Survivorship trajectories/when does mortality occur Apply these regression formulas to the landscape

Does interpolated surface (5 cm) temperature at 30 m/monthly resolution capture fine- scale temperature variability measured in the field? Compare average monthly max temp of all garden sensors for a given garden to interpolated average monthly max temp for that garden So, comparing a single monthly interpolated value to approximately 21 sensors x 30 days per month= >600 temp values x 6 gardens per site Slides shown on m2M monthly conference call: by Ian Updates from the Davis Lab

Teakettle May 2012 – mean monthly maximum temperature Blue=interpolated average max daily temp (Campbell method, performed by John Dingman) for given month at 5 cm Red=average max daily temp of all garden sensors for given month at 5 cm Bars indicate standard deviation for the whole month, not for a given day. Therefore, long bars indicate there is wide temp variability throughout a month that isn’t necessarily evident in a single mean monthly value. The biological relevance of this is another question.

Teakettle June 2012 – mean monthly maximum temperature

Teakettle July 2012 – mean monthly maximum temperature Arrows indicate a pattern of south slopes underpredicting max temp of full garden array

Teakettle Aug 2012 – mean monthly maximum temperature

Teakettle Sep 2012 – mean monthly maximum temperature

So, the surface temperature interpolation with a monthly time-step does not necessarily capture very fine-scale variability in surface temperature o May do so for north slopes and cold air pooling sites o Seems to under-predict the amount of warmth on south slopes during hot summer months o Duration of temperature extremes are not represented in mean data...how much does this matter from a biological standpoint? Given that minimum temperature varies less over small areas based on our garden data, I would expect that the interpolation method would show better agreement with average minimum temperature measured at the gardens Discussion